Early-season tornado activity has surged well above historical norms, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reporting over 560 preliminary U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026—driven by repeated outbreaks fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with strong upper-level dynamics. March and April each produced more than double the 1991–2020 averages, including a major April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. These conditions have elevated trader expectations for a full-year total exceeding 1,250, consistent with long-range seasonal outlooks projecting 1,050–1,250 tornadoes overall. Ongoing monitoring of atmospheric patterns and model runs through the summer will further refine year-end counts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 81%
<950 22.4%
1050–1099 4.1%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 KL.
$72,212 KL.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
22%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
37%
1250+
81%
1250+ 81%
<950 22.4%
1050–1099 4.1%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 KL.
$72,212 KL.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,427 KL.
22%
950–999
$2,976 KL.
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 KL.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 KL.
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 KL.
3%
1150–1199
$2,650 KL.
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 KL.
37%
1250+
$16,681 KL.
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early-season tornado activity has surged well above historical norms, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reporting over 560 preliminary U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026—driven by repeated outbreaks fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with strong upper-level dynamics. March and April each produced more than double the 1991–2020 averages, including a major April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. These conditions have elevated trader expectations for a full-year total exceeding 1,250, consistent with long-range seasonal outlooks projecting 1,050–1,250 tornadoes overall. Ongoing monitoring of atmospheric patterns and model runs through the summer will further refine year-end counts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Khối lượng
$72,212Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early-season tornado activity has surged well above historical norms, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reporting over 560 preliminary U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026—driven by repeated outbreaks fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with strong upper-level dynamics. March and April each produced more than double the 1991–2020 averages, including a major April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. These conditions have elevated trader expectations for a full-year total exceeding 1,250, consistent with long-range seasonal outlooks projecting 1,050–1,250 tornadoes overall. Ongoing monitoring of atmospheric patterns and model runs through the summer will further refine year-end counts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$72,212Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early-season tornado activity has surged well above historical norms, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reporting over 560 preliminary U.S. tornadoes through mid-May 2026—driven by repeated outbreaks fueled by persistent warm, moist Gulf air clashing with strong upper-level dynamics. March and April each produced more than double the 1991–2020 averages, including a major April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. These conditions have elevated trader expectations for a full-year total exceeding 1,250, consistent with long-range seasonal outlooks projecting 1,050–1,250 tornadoes overall. Ongoing monitoring of atmospheric patterns and model runs through the summer will further refine year-end counts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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