Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains incarcerated at Adiala Jail under multiple convictions, including a 14-year sentence in the Al-Qadir Trust corruption case and an additional 17-year term in the Toshakhana gifts matter, both under appeal at the Islamabad High Court with no successful suspension of the core penalties as of mid-2026. The military establishment and Shehbaz Sharif government view Khan’s sustained popularity as a direct challenge, limiting incentives for early release or political accommodation despite his refusal to accept conditions that would sideline him. Recent Supreme Court and Islamabad High Court orders have addressed prison conditions, family access, and medical evaluations for his reported vision impairment, yet these steps have not altered his custodial status or produced bail on the decisive convictions. Trader pricing at 91.5% for “No” reflects the low probability of judicial reversal or negotiated settlement sufficient to free Khan before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.