President Trump has not ruled out invoking the Insurrection Act ahead of the November 2026 midterms, citing resistance from Democratic governors and mayors to federal immigration enforcement operations by ICE. Recent incidents in Minneapolis, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Portland—including shootings during raids, protests, and clashes—have prompted administration statements framing local opposition as enabling disorder or “insurrection.” Trump has repeatedly referenced the 1807 law in interviews and posts without committing to its use, while noting it could address perceived obstructions by courts or state officials. No invocation has occurred to date, and historical precedent shows rare application without state consent. Traders appear to price in elevated but still limited odds due to these public signals, ongoing border and protest dynamics, and the narrow window before year-end resolution.