The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by the Revolutionary Guards amid a three-member interim council, has shaped trader views on further leadership shifts by setting a precedent for continuity despite Mojtaba's limited public role and reported absences from key diplomatic talks. Domestic economic pressures, ongoing regional tensions, and institutional dynamics around the Guardians Council and clerical bodies remain central factors that could influence stability or prompt additional changes before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$13,708,515 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Ngày 31 tháng 5
7%
30 tháng 6
13%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
34%
$13,708,515 KL.
Ngày 31 tháng 5
$2,013,445 KL.
7%
30 tháng 6
$1,099,944 KL.
13%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$2,399,245 KL.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by the Revolutionary Guards amid a three-member interim council, has shaped trader views on further leadership shifts by setting a precedent for continuity despite Mojtaba's limited public role and reported absences from key diplomatic talks. Domestic economic pressures, ongoing regional tensions, and institutional dynamics around the Guardians Council and clerical bodies remain central factors that could influence stability or prompt additional changes before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,708,515Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by the Revolutionary Guards amid a three-member interim council, has shaped trader views on further leadership shifts by setting a precedent for continuity despite Mojtaba's limited public role and reported absences from key diplomatic talks. Domestic economic pressures, ongoing regional tensions, and institutional dynamics around the Guardians Council and clerical bodies remain central factors that could influence stability or prompt additional changes before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$13,708,515Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid transition, backed by the Revolutionary Guards amid a three-member interim council, has shaped trader views on further leadership shifts by setting a precedent for continuity despite Mojtaba's limited public role and reported absences from key diplomatic talks. Domestic economic pressures, ongoing regional tensions, and institutional dynamics around the Guardians Council and clerical bodies remain central factors that could influence stability or prompt additional changes before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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