The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, resulting in the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader. Mojtaba has issued only written statements and has not appeared publicly since assuming the role, prompting assessments that authority has shifted toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders such as Ahmad Vahidi and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. President Masoud Pezeshkian continues in his elected position and recently held a meeting with the new supreme leader to project institutional cohesion amid ongoing military tensions. These dynamics, including the decimation of prior clerical and military ranks during the conflict, inform trader views on whether additional leadership transitions could occur by key deadlines, with scheduled diplomatic or escalation events in the coming months serving as potential catalysts.