Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$13,675,890 KL.
May 31, 2026
Ngày 31 tháng 5
7%
30 tháng 6
13%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
34%
$13,675,890 KL.
Ngày 31 tháng 5
$1,991,933 KL.
7%
30 tháng 6
$1,089,944 KL.
13%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$2,398,133 KL.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,675,890Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$13,675,890Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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