Trader consensus on the 74% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of threshold-level events through mid-May. USGS seismic records show no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes globally, with the strongest event a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March that produced negligible impacts. Smithsonian volcanism logs confirm zero VEI 6+ eruptions, a rarity occurring less than once per decade on average, while NHC data note no Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale ahead of the June 1 Atlantic season start. Colorado State University seasonal outlooks project below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming NOAA hurricane and USGS seismic updates could alter positioning if major events materialize later in the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,685 KL.
$218,685 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,685 KL.
$218,685 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on the 74% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of threshold-level events through mid-May. USGS seismic records show no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes globally, with the strongest event a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March that produced negligible impacts. Smithsonian volcanism logs confirm zero VEI 6+ eruptions, a rarity occurring less than once per decade on average, while NHC data note no Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale ahead of the June 1 Atlantic season start. Colorado State University seasonal outlooks project below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming NOAA hurricane and USGS seismic updates could alter positioning if major events materialize later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$218,685Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on the 74% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of threshold-level events through mid-May. USGS seismic records show no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes globally, with the strongest event a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March that produced negligible impacts. Smithsonian volcanism logs confirm zero VEI 6+ eruptions, a rarity occurring less than once per decade on average, while NHC data note no Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale ahead of the June 1 Atlantic season start. Colorado State University seasonal outlooks project below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming NOAA hurricane and USGS seismic updates could alter positioning if major events materialize later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$218,685Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the 74% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of threshold-level events through mid-May. USGS seismic records show no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes globally, with the strongest event a remote M7.5 near Tonga in March that produced negligible impacts. Smithsonian volcanism logs confirm zero VEI 6+ eruptions, a rarity occurring less than once per decade on average, while NHC data note no Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale ahead of the June 1 Atlantic season start. Colorado State University seasonal outlooks project below-normal hurricane activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming NOAA hurricane and USGS seismic updates could alter positioning if major events materialize later in the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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