Trader consensus favoring roughly 78% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA’s National Weather Service maintains its below-normal Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with no active systems threatening U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. USGS monitoring shows no recent seismic events approaching the magnitude threshold, while volcanic and meteor observations remain quiet relative to historical baselines. With four months remaining, model consensus and agency data releases continue to support these odds absent rapid intensification or new alerts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
22% khả năng
$243,151 KL.
$243,151 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
22% khả năng
$243,151 KL.
$243,151 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring roughly 78% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA’s National Weather Service maintains its below-normal Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with no active systems threatening U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. USGS monitoring shows no recent seismic events approaching the magnitude threshold, while volcanic and meteor observations remain quiet relative to historical baselines. With four months remaining, model consensus and agency data releases continue to support these odds absent rapid intensification or new alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$243,151Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring roughly 78% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA’s National Weather Service maintains its below-normal Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with no active systems threatening U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. USGS monitoring shows no recent seismic events approaching the magnitude threshold, while volcanic and meteor observations remain quiet relative to historical baselines. With four months remaining, model consensus and agency data releases continue to support these odds absent rapid intensification or new alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$243,151Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring roughly 78% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. NOAA’s National Weather Service maintains its below-normal Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with no active systems threatening U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. USGS monitoring shows no recent seismic events approaching the magnitude threshold, while volcanic and meteor observations remain quiet relative to historical baselines. With four months remaining, model consensus and agency data releases continue to support these odds absent rapid intensification or new alerts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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