The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released in June, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—covering retirement benefits—will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with incoming payroll taxes then covering about 78% of scheduled payments. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, at which point benefits would drop to roughly 83% without intervention. This slight acceleration stems partly from recent tax changes reducing revenue from benefit taxation. No major legislative reforms have advanced since the report, leaving the timeline dependent on future congressional action to reallocate funds or adjust taxes and benefits. Traders monitor these official depletion dates as the core benchmark, with any new budget deals or economic data releases as potential catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSocial Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?
MỚI
Jan 1, 2029
December 31, 2027
10%
December 31, 2028
23%
$200 KL.
December 31, 2027
$198 KL.
10%
December 31, 2028
$1 KL.
23%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released in June, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—covering retirement benefits—will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with incoming payroll taxes then covering about 78% of scheduled payments. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, at which point benefits would drop to roughly 83% without intervention. This slight acceleration stems partly from recent tax changes reducing revenue from benefit taxation. No major legislative reforms have advanced since the report, leaving the timeline dependent on future congressional action to reallocate funds or adjust taxes and benefits. Traders monitor these official depletion dates as the core benchmark, with any new budget deals or economic data releases as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$200Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released in June, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—covering retirement benefits—will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with incoming payroll taxes then covering about 78% of scheduled payments. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, at which point benefits would drop to roughly 83% without intervention. This slight acceleration stems partly from recent tax changes reducing revenue from benefit taxation. No major legislative reforms have advanced since the report, leaving the timeline dependent on future congressional action to reallocate funds or adjust taxes and benefits. Traders monitor these official depletion dates as the core benchmark, with any new budget deals or economic data releases as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$200Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released in June, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—covering retirement benefits—will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with incoming payroll taxes then covering about 78% of scheduled payments. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, at which point benefits would drop to roughly 83% without intervention. This slight acceleration stems partly from recent tax changes reducing revenue from benefit taxation. No major legislative reforms have advanced since the report, leaving the timeline dependent on future congressional action to reallocate funds or adjust taxes and benefits. Traders monitor these official depletion dates as the core benchmark, with any new budget deals or economic data releases as potential catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp