SpaceX Starship V3 vehicles now incorporate docking ports, drogues, and propellant feed hardware explicitly for ship-to-ship rendezvous and transfer operations. The first demonstration—launching one vehicle, followed by a tanker variant to dock and refuel in low Earth orbit—has shifted from earlier 2025 targets to a 2026 window, driven by iterative flight test results and the need for reliable orbital insertion, proximity operations, and connection qualification. Flight 12 in May 2026 validated initial V3 performance, with Flights 13–15 expected to advance booster recovery, payload deployment, and rendezvous elements critical to docking success. Artemis lunar timelines and Mars refueling concepts add schedule pressure, while any further test anomalies could extend the timeline beyond current market-implied windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026?
33%
December 31, 2027?
54%
$1 KL.
December 31, 2026?
$0 KL.
33%
December 31, 2027?
$1 KL.
54%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX Starship V3 vehicles now incorporate docking ports, drogues, and propellant feed hardware explicitly for ship-to-ship rendezvous and transfer operations. The first demonstration—launching one vehicle, followed by a tanker variant to dock and refuel in low Earth orbit—has shifted from earlier 2025 targets to a 2026 window, driven by iterative flight test results and the need for reliable orbital insertion, proximity operations, and connection qualification. Flight 12 in May 2026 validated initial V3 performance, with Flights 13–15 expected to advance booster recovery, payload deployment, and rendezvous elements critical to docking success. Artemis lunar timelines and Mars refueling concepts add schedule pressure, while any further test anomalies could extend the timeline beyond current market-implied windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2028Thị trường mở
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX Starship V3 vehicles now incorporate docking ports, drogues, and propellant feed hardware explicitly for ship-to-ship rendezvous and transfer operations. The first demonstration—launching one vehicle, followed by a tanker variant to dock and refuel in low Earth orbit—has shifted from earlier 2025 targets to a 2026 window, driven by iterative flight test results and the need for reliable orbital insertion, proximity operations, and connection qualification. Flight 12 in May 2026 validated initial V3 performance, with Flights 13–15 expected to advance booster recovery, payload deployment, and rendezvous elements critical to docking success. Artemis lunar timelines and Mars refueling concepts add schedule pressure, while any further test anomalies could extend the timeline beyond current market-implied windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2028Thị trường mở
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX Starship V3 vehicles now incorporate docking ports, drogues, and propellant feed hardware explicitly for ship-to-ship rendezvous and transfer operations. The first demonstration—launching one vehicle, followed by a tanker variant to dock and refuel in low Earth orbit—has shifted from earlier 2025 targets to a 2026 window, driven by iterative flight test results and the need for reliable orbital insertion, proximity operations, and connection qualification. Flight 12 in May 2026 validated initial V3 performance, with Flights 13–15 expected to advance booster recovery, payload deployment, and rendezvous elements critical to docking success. Artemis lunar timelines and Mars refueling concepts add schedule pressure, while any further test anomalies could extend the timeline beyond current market-implied windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp