Ilia Topuria’s recovery timeline from his June 2026 corner-stoppage loss to Justin Gaethje, with an earliest return projected for February 2027, has kept attention on high-profile lightweight options. Paddy Pimblett leads market pricing at 63.5% due to years of public animosity, repeated callouts, and Dana White highlighting the matchup as a strong draw alongside a potential Gaethje rematch. Gaethje sits at 42% as he has shown little interest in an immediate rematch, while Arman Tsarukyan trails at 16% amid his focus on a title shot. Traders appear to weigh the “wisdom of crowds” consensus around stylistic appeal and promotional momentum favoring the Pimblett bout over other contenders like Benoit Saint Denis when Topuria resumes training.