The U.S. Justice Department’s recent steps to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro have driven trader consensus toward a 69 percent probability of charges. Multiple officials have confirmed the effort centers on the 1996 Cuban military downing of two unarmed civilian aircraft operated by the Brothers to the Rescue organization, which killed four people. Reports indicate the indictment could be unsealed as soon as May 20 in Miami, coinciding with Cuban independence observances, amid broader administration pressure on Havana. This development revives long-standing calls from Cuban-American lawmakers and victims’ families for accountability tied to Castro’s role as defense minister at the time. While grand jury approval remains required and timing could shift, the confirmed preparations have elevated the implied likelihood reflected in current market pricing.