Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition often ahead on around 25–32 percent, Labor and One Nation clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, and the Greens steady near 13–15 percent. One Nation’s surge, including its August candidate announcements under new state leader Warren Pickering, has boosted its primary support but faces structural barriers to translating votes into seats given weaker preference flows compared with major parties. Labor’s position as the leading market outcome for second place reflects its established voter base, recent leadership transition to Ben Carroll, and stronger expected preference distribution in a preferential system. Electoral reforms passed in August abolishing group voting tickets may further influence minor-party seat prospects in the Legislative Council. Traders’ consensus prices these dynamics as favoring Labor for second-most seats behind a potential Coalition plurality.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLabor 71%
Liberal–National 10.2%
One Nation 4.6%
Greens <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
71%
Liberal–National
10%
One Nation
5%
Greens
1%
Labor 71%
Liberal–National 10.2%
One Nation 4.6%
Greens <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$863 KL.
71%
Liberal–National
$253 KL.
10%
One Nation
$410 KL.
5%
Greens
$208 KL.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition often ahead on around 25–32 percent, Labor and One Nation clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, and the Greens steady near 13–15 percent. One Nation’s surge, including its August candidate announcements under new state leader Warren Pickering, has boosted its primary support but faces structural barriers to translating votes into seats given weaker preference flows compared with major parties. Labor’s position as the leading market outcome for second place reflects its established voter base, recent leadership transition to Ben Carroll, and stronger expected preference distribution in a preferential system. Electoral reforms passed in August abolishing group voting tickets may further influence minor-party seat prospects in the Legislative Council. Traders’ consensus prices these dynamics as favoring Labor for second-most seats behind a potential Coalition plurality.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,733Ngày kết thúc
Nov 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition often ahead on around 25–32 percent, Labor and One Nation clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, and the Greens steady near 13–15 percent. One Nation’s surge, including its August candidate announcements under new state leader Warren Pickering, has boosted its primary support but faces structural barriers to translating votes into seats given weaker preference flows compared with major parties. Labor’s position as the leading market outcome for second place reflects its established voter base, recent leadership transition to Ben Carroll, and stronger expected preference distribution in a preferential system. Electoral reforms passed in August abolishing group voting tickets may further influence minor-party seat prospects in the Legislative Council. Traders’ consensus prices these dynamics as favoring Labor for second-most seats behind a potential Coalition plurality.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Khối lượng
$1,733Ngày kết thúc
Nov 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition often ahead on around 25–32 percent, Labor and One Nation clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, and the Greens steady near 13–15 percent. One Nation’s surge, including its August candidate announcements under new state leader Warren Pickering, has boosted its primary support but faces structural barriers to translating votes into seats given weaker preference flows compared with major parties. Labor’s position as the leading market outcome for second place reflects its established voter base, recent leadership transition to Ben Carroll, and stronger expected preference distribution in a preferential system. Electoral reforms passed in August abolishing group voting tickets may further influence minor-party seat prospects in the Legislative Council. Traders’ consensus prices these dynamics as favoring Labor for second-most seats behind a potential Coalition plurality.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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