Mortgage rates edge higher but remain near 2025 lows amid Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 37%12%

Mortgage rates slightly increased but stayed near recent lows, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate cuts and economic conditions, influencing expectations for the Fed rate hitting lower levels before 2027.

Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.25% plunges to 23%18%

The Justice Department concluded its investigation into Fed Chair Powell, removing a significant source of political pressure on the Fed. This development supported market confidence in the Fed's independence and steadied rate expectations.

Fed rate cut probabilities decline amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% plunges to 32%17%

By mid-May 2026, market prices for rate cuts to 3.25% and 3.0% dropped sharply as investors reassessed the likelihood of Fed easing, reflecting ongoing economic data and Fed communications suggesting a cautious approach to rate reductions.

Mortgage rates edge higher as 10‑year Treasury yields rise

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%1%

Higher long‑term yields signaled market expectations of tighter monetary policy, nudging the market toward the higher‑rate outcome.

Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.25% drops to 31%5%

The Justice Department concluded its criminal investigation of Powell, removing a significant political overhang. This development may reduce uncertainty about Fed independence but did not immediately shift market expectations for rate changes.

Fed rate cut probabilities decline sharply amid persistent inflation and economic data

↓ 3.25% plunges to 26%26%

Market probabilities for Fed rate cuts to levels like 3.25% and 3.0% dropped significantly in May 2026 as inflation remained above target and economic data suggested a stable job market, reducing expectations for aggressive easing.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 26%13%

The US added fewer jobs than expected in recent months with rising unemployment, signaling a weakening labor market. This data increased speculation that the Fed might consider rate cuts later in 2026 to support employment.

Fed rate cut expectations decline amid improving economic data

↓ 3.25% plunges to 27%22%

Market prices for rate cuts to 3.25% and below declined sharply in May 2026 as economic data showed inflation persistence and labor market stabilization, reducing expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts before 2027.

Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts, complicating policy outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 39%11%

December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring, challenging the Fed's efforts to stimulate the labor market through rate cuts. This mixed economic data contributed to declining market confidence in further rate reductions.

Federal Reserve governor Miran resigns from White House post amid Fed leadership changes

↓ 3.25% drops to 28%7%

Stephen Miran stepped down from his White House Council of Economic Advisers role while remaining on the Fed board, highlighting ongoing personnel shifts and political tensions affecting Fed policy expectations. This event influenced market views on the Fed's future rate decisions.

U.S. job growth slows, unemployment rises to 4.6%

↓ 2.0% dips to 8%3%

The latest jobs report showed weaker hiring and a modest rise in unemployment, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts and pushing lower‑rate outcome prices down.

Fed Chair Powell gains Republican support amid Trump’s attacks

↓ 3.25% drops to 48%13%

Despite President Trump's ongoing criticism and legal pressures, Senate Republicans publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, reinforcing the Fed's independence and influencing market confidence in the Fed’s cautious approach to rate changes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate stability

↓ 2.75% dips to 9%1%

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, reflecting market expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time, reinforcing the view that significant rate cuts below 3% were unlikely soon.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cut expectations

↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%21%

Mortgage rates remained near their lowest levels since 2024, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate cuts. However, persistent inflation and economic data suggested the Fed might hold rates steady, influencing market pricing of rate outcomes.

Mortgage rates edge higher as Fed rate‑cut expectations wane

↑ 4.25% rises to 9%2%

The average 30‑year mortgage rate rose slightly, reflecting market perception that the Fed may hold rates steady longer, which modestly increased the price of the rare upward‑rate outcome.

Fed Chair Powell ends DOJ criminal investigation, reaffirms Fed independence

↓ 3.25% drops to 32%12%

The Department of Justice ended its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on economic conditions. This development helped stabilize market expectations and reduced political pressure on the Fed's rate decisions.

Market prices for Fed rate hitting 3.25% decline amid cautious Fed outlook

↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%22%

By early May 2026, market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% had declined significantly from earlier highs, reflecting growing market skepticism about aggressive rate cuts given mixed economic data and ongoing political challenges to Fed independence.

Fed releases quarterly economic projections showing modest inflation decline

↓ 2.25% dips to 8%3%

The projections softened expectations of aggressive easing, causing the final drop in the "↓ 2.25%" contract to its endpoint.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid economic and political pressures

↓ 2.25% dips to 8%3%

Ahead of the May 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady, balancing inflation concerns and labor market conditions amid ongoing political scrutiny. This expectation contributed to a decline in market prices for larger rate cut outcomes.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic resilience

At the April 2026 meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing ongoing economic resilience and elevated energy prices due to geopolitical tensions. The Fed continued to emphasize a patient approach, with no immediate plans for rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and labor market dynamics.

FOMC holds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% with 8-4 vote and dissenting members

↓ 3.0% dips to 11%3%

The FOMC voted 8-4 to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a FOMC decision. This signaled uncertainty about future cuts.

US inflation gauge rises to 2.8% in November, keeping pressure on the Fed

↓ 3.0% drops to 16%7%

Higher‑than‑expected inflation reduced expectations of near‑term cuts, dragging the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts lower.

FOMC minutes show divided stance on future rate cuts and hikes

↓ 3.25% plunges to 49%15%

Minutes from the April 2026 FOMC meeting revealed that many officials preferred removing easing bias language and considered some policy firming appropriate if inflation remained above 2%. This increased uncertainty and reduced market confidence in rate cuts to 3.25% or 3.0%, pushing probabilities down significantly.

Fed minutes show split on possible rate hike later in year

↓ 2.5% dips to 7%2%

April meeting minutes indicated a faction within the Fed considering a future rate increase if inflation remains above target, curbing optimism for additional cuts.

Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor Lisa Cook case

↑ 4.25% dips to 5%2%

The Supreme Court’s hearing on the attempt to fire Governor Cook underscored political threats to Fed independence, prompting market participants to reassess the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts and modestly increase the probability of a 4.25% upper bound.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 63%2%

The Supreme Court considered Trump's effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. The legal uncertainty contributed to market doubts about aggressive rate cuts, as political interference risked undermining Fed credibility.

Fed minutes show officials want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 2.5% drops to 11%6%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting revealed most officials want to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate reductions and influencing prices for lower rate outcomes.

Fed releases updated economic projections showing modest inflation decline

↓ 1.25% dips to 8%3%

The Fed’s projection of slower inflation reinforced market belief that further cuts may be limited, pushing down lower‑rate prices.

Federal prosecutors attempt unannounced visit to Fed headquarters construction site

The surprise visit underscored the administration’s aggressive stance toward the Fed, reinforcing market fears of political meddling and sustaining pressure for lower rates.

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade, pushing oil prices higher

↑ 4.25% rises to 8%3%

Iran fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating geopolitical tensions and causing oil prices to surge. Higher oil prices increased inflation concerns, reducing market expectations for Fed rate cuts and even raising the possibility of rate hikes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cut expectations

↓ 2.75% dips to 10%4%

Mortgage rates remained near their lowest levels since 2024, influenced by expectations of Fed rate cuts and economic conditions, which affected market pricing of future Fed rate paths and borrowing costs.

Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate on DOJ investigation

↓ 2.5% plunges to 8%49%

Powell’s testimony highlighted ongoing political battles, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would avoid further cuts, which pushed prices of lower‑rate outcomes down further.

Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court oral argument on Cook case

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%1%

Powell’s presence underscored the political stakes, briefly reviving concerns about Fed independence and lifting the "↑ 4.25%" contract.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid steady Fed policy

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, reflecting market expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time, influenced by stable inflation and economic data, which supported lower probabilities for deeper rate cuts.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% plunges to 55%15%

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% after a two-day FOMC meeting, citing mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation above target. This cautious stance reduced market confidence in further rate cuts or hikes by the end of 2026, contributing to a decline in the probability of the 3.25% and 3.0% rate cut outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% plunges to 53%18%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials prefer to see further inflation decline before cutting rates, indicating a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

Fed maintains rates amid cautious outlook and mixed economic data

↓ 3.25% plunges to 28%38%

By April 2026, the Federal Reserve continued to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, citing ongoing inflation above target and mixed labor market signals. This cautious stance reduced market confidence in further rate cuts before 2027, reflected in declining prices for lower rate outcomes.

Inflation data shows prices ticked up in November, signaling persistent inflation

↓ 3.25% dips to 65%3%

November inflation data indicated prices rose 2.8% year-over-year, slightly higher than October, suggesting inflation remains above the Fed's target. This data reduced market expectations for rate cuts, impacting the likelihood of lower Fed rates before 2027.

US inflation data shows prices tick up, reducing urgency for Fed rate cuts

↓ 3.0% dips to 22%3%

November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices, suggesting inflation remains above target and reducing market expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, impacting the pricing of lower rate outcomes.

Mortgage rates edge higher as 10‑year Treasury yields rise

↑ 4.25% dips to 6%2%

Freddie Mac reported a slight increase in 30‑year mortgage rates, reflecting higher Treasury yields and reducing market expectations for further Fed easing.

Senate Banking Committee hearing on Fed independence

↓ 2.0% dips to 12%4%

Republican senators publicly defended Powell and warned against political pressure, reducing expectations of an imminent rate‑cut push and further lowering lower‑rate odds.

Federal prosecutors visit Fed building site amid ongoing investigation

↓ 3.25% jumps to 72%9%

Prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's renovation site as part of an investigation into cost overruns, intensifying political pressure on the Fed and Chair Powell. This heightened uncertainty about Fed policy direction.

Mortgage rates edge higher but remain near 2025 lows amid Fed rate uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 70%14%

Mortgage rates slightly increased but stayed near 2025 lows, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate policy amid mixed economic signals. This influenced market pricing by tempering expectations for sharp rate cuts or hikes before 2027.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 2.75% drops to 15%5%

Ahead of a scheduled Fed meeting, expectations solidified that the Fed would hold rates steady due to mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns. This anticipation led to a reduction in market odds for significant rate cuts below 3%.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 63%3%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy. Warsh faced challenges balancing Fed independence with Trump’s demands for lower rates, adding uncertainty to market expectations.

Inflation data shows prices tick up, suggesting less urgency for Fed rate cuts

↓ 0.5% dips to 3%3%

November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices, indicating inflation remains above target. This reduced market expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, contributing to lower prices for the ↓0% and ↓0.5% outcomes.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% after a divided vote

↓ 2.5% drops to 20%13%

A hold on rates reduced optimism for further cuts, pulling the "↓ 2.5%" and "↓ 2.25%" contracts down toward their lows.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising independence concerns

↓ 2.5% plunges to 17%24%

The Supreme Court took up the politically charged case over President Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political uncertainty likely influenced market expectations, reducing confidence in aggressive rate cuts.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and legal pressure

Analysts projected the Fed would hold rates steady at its April meeting, reflecting uncertainty from ongoing investigations and the Supreme Court case, which steadied the market and slightly lifted the higher‑rate outcome.

Fed officials warn of potential rate hike if inflation stalls

↓ 3.0% drops to 57%8%

Comments about a possible future hike introduced upside risk, causing a sharp drop in prices for the downward‑rate contracts as traders reassessed the ceiling of the target range.

Treasury Secretary Bessent proposes residency rule for Fed regional presidents

↓ 3.25% dips to 66%2%

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocated for a new requirement that Federal Reserve regional bank presidents must live in their districts for at least three years, potentially increasing White House influence over the Fed. This political development added uncertainty about Fed governance and policy direction.

Market reacts to mixed economic data and Fed cautious stance

↓ 3.25% plunges to 54%21%

Market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% dropped sharply after mixed economic data and Fed signals of a cautious approach to further rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about the timing and extent of future policy moves.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid political and legal pressures

↓ 3.25% drops to 60%10%

Ahead of the April meeting, the Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady at about 3.6%, balancing economic data and ongoing political/legal scrutiny including DOJ investigations and Supreme Court cases. This expectation contributed to market stability and low probability of large rate hikes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cuts and economic data

Mortgage rates remained near their lowest levels since 2024, influenced by Fed rate cuts and bond market expectations, supporting housing affordability and reflecting market anticipation of stable or lower Fed rates.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% drops to 66%5%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political uncertainty affected market confidence in aggressive rate cuts, contributing to lower prices for rate cut outcomes.

Supreme Court leans toward letting Cook stay on board

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%2%

Justices appeared inclined to allow Governor Lisa Cook to remain, easing political pressure on the Fed and lowering the perceived risk of a Trump‑driven rate‑cut agenda.

Fed minutes reveal deep split, hint at possible rate hike

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%3%

Minutes from the March meeting showed a split among officials and mention of a potential rate hike, boosting the odds of the 4.25% upper bound while pulling down expectations for lower‑rate outcomes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cuts and economic data

↓ 2.75% drops to 17%11%

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, influenced by Fed rate cuts and bond market expectations, signaling market anticipation of moderate Fed rate levels and affecting probabilities for rate cuts to around 2.75%.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic and political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% plunges to 60%22%

Ahead of a Fed meeting, Chair Powell emphasized that rate decisions are driven by economic data, not politics, amid ongoing legal and political pressures. The Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady, reflecting cautious policy amid uncertainty.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% rises to 90%1%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing its cautious stance amid resilient economic activity and inflation concerns. The decision reflected ongoing uncertainty about inflation and labor market dynamics, with no immediate rate cuts or hikes.

Market reacts to sharp drop in Fed rate cut expectations amid economic data

↓ 3.0% plunges to 33%37%

Following weaker economic data and Fed minutes showing divided views on rate cuts, market probabilities for rate decreases dropped sharply, reflecting uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves and the balance between inflation and employment concerns.

US jobs report shows weak labor market with rising unemployment

↓ 3.0% plunges to 38%32%

The government reported a rise in unemployment to 4.6% and mixed job gains, signaling a weakening labor market. This data influenced Fed rate cut expectations, as a weaker job market could prompt more aggressive rate reductions, affecting market prices for lower rate outcomes.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising concerns over Fed independence

↓ 3.25% plunges to 60%29%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as politically motivated to influence Fed policy. This legal uncertainty contributed to market caution about aggressive rate changes.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% rises to 93%2%

In March 2026, the FOMC voted 11-1 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause in rate changes amid solid economic activity and persistent inflation. The decision reflected the Fed's cautious stance, balancing inflation concerns with steady job gains and a stable unemployment rate. This reinforced market expectations of limited near-term easing.

Fed policymakers vote to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 80%12%

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target despite a slowing labor market. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for deeper rate cuts in 2026.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 81%11%

The December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, despite previous Fed rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This data added uncertainty about the need for further rate cuts, influencing market prices downward for lower rate outcomes.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% plunges to 64%26%

The US added fewer jobs than expected in December, with unemployment rising slightly, indicating a weakening labor market. This data complicated the Fed's dual mandate and influenced market expectations for possible rate cuts, though inflation concerns remained.

Fed keeps rate steady at 3.6% after January meeting

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%15%

The FOMC voted 10‑2 to hold the target range unchanged, reinforcing a pause in policy and reducing the probability of further cuts in the short term.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before additional cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 25%14%

The minutes signaled a pause in easing, causing a sharp decline in the "↓ 2.75%" contract price.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts

The released minutes indicated a divided committee, with many members reluctant to cut rates further until inflation eases, dampening expectations of additional cuts and causing a modest rebound in higher‑rate outcome prices.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at March meeting amid inflation concerns

↓ 2.75% drops to 25%13%

A decision to hold rates steady after three cuts reinforced expectations that the lower bound of the target range would remain near 3.6%, keeping downward‑rate outcomes attractive.

Fed votes 10-2 to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 90%5%

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted overwhelmingly to maintain current rates, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and a stabilizing labor market. This decision reinforced market views that significant rate cuts were unlikely in the near term.

Federal prosecutors visit Fed building amid investigation into renovation costs

↓ 3.25% plunges to 61%22%

Prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed headquarters construction site, intensifying scrutiny on Fed Chair Powell and raising concerns about political interference in Fed operations, influencing market uncertainty about rate policy.

Mixed economic data shows persistent inflation and slowing job growth

↓ 3.25% drops to 71%13%

Reports indicated inflation remained above target while job growth slowed, complicating Fed decisions on rate cuts. This data led markets to lower expectations for aggressive rate decreases.

Core CPI rises 2.8% in February, keeping inflation above target

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%1%

Higher‑than‑expected core inflation data reinforced concerns that the Fed may need to keep rates higher longer, boosting the odds of the upward‑rate outcome.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring and rising unemployment

↓ 3.0% plunges to 54%27%

Delayed government reports showed the US lost jobs in October and gained fewer in November, with unemployment rising to 4.6%. This labor market weakness influenced Fed officials' cautious stance on rate cuts, impacting market pricing for lower rates.

November CPI shows 2.8% annual increase

↓ 1.5% plunges to 30%34%

The latest consumer‑price index report showed inflation still above target, reducing market expectations for aggressive rate cuts and pushing prices down for lower‑rate outcomes.

Senate Banking Committee hearing on Warsh nomination highlights independence concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 70%12%

During the Senate hearing, Warsh denied promising the White House any specific interest rate decisions, emphasizing Fed independence. The hearing underscored political tensions and uncertainty about future rate cuts, affecting market pricing for lower rate outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials prefer to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions in 2026.

Treasury Secretary Bessent proposes residency requirement for Fed regional presidents

↓ 3.25% plunges to 65%17%

Bessent's proposal to require Fed regional presidents to live in their districts aimed to increase White House influence over the Fed, potentially affecting the Fed's independence and policy decisions. This political maneuvering influenced market expectations about future rate paths.

Fed minutes reveal officials divided on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 30%13%

Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed a split among officials, with some favoring more cuts if inflation declines, others preferring to hold rates steady, reflecting uncertainty that influenced market pricing of rate outcomes.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic and political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%7%

Ahead of the March meeting, the Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady at about 3.6%, balancing inflation concerns and a stabilizing labor market despite ongoing political and legal challenges. This expectation contributed to declining market prices for rate cuts.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% drops to 71%11%

The Supreme Court considered Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political influence on monetary policy, affecting market confidence in rate decisions.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cut expectations

↓ 3.0% plunges to 64%18%

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate cuts and economic conditions. This influenced market pricing on the likelihood of the Fed lowering rates to various thresholds by the end of 2026.

Labor market data shows slowing hiring despite Fed rate cuts

↓ 2.75% plunges to 36%18%

December 2025 jobs report showed hiring slowed, defying Fed efforts to boost employment with rate cuts. The weak labor market complicated Fed decisions, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility for rate cut outcomes.

Iran war disrupts oil supply, pushing inflation concerns higher

↓ 3.25% rises to 92%3%

The Iran war led to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, causing energy prices to surge and raising inflation risks. Fed policymakers, including Powell, indicated a preference to keep rates unchanged to combat inflation, dampening market expectations for rate cuts.

Fed minutes reveal divided views on further rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 92%1%

Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed a split among Fed officials, with some favoring additional cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady. This division contributed to market uncertainty and declining prices for lower rate outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%12%

Minutes from the January meeting showed most Fed officials prefer to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, indicating a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

January jobs report shows 130,000 jobs added, unemployment falls to 4.3%

↓ 3.0% drops to 71%11%

Stronger labor market data reduced urgency for further cuts, pushing the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts lower.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising concerns over Fed independence

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%7%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as threatening the Fed's independence. This legal uncertainty contributed to market caution regarding future Fed rate policies.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% plunges to 66%24%

Minutes from the January meeting showed most Fed officials want to see further inflation decline before supporting more rate cuts, with some favoring a longer pause or even signaling potential rate hikes if inflation remains high. This tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

Trump announces plan to nominate Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate cuts amid political pressures, influencing market expectations downward for aggressive rate reductions.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts

↓ 3.25% jumps to 65%8%

The minutes indicated a cautious stance, suggesting limited near‑term cuts and reinforcing market belief that rates would stay low for a while, supporting downward‑rate bets.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s firing

↓ 2.25% drops to 20%7%

The high court’s oral argument on whether President Trump can fire Governor Cook highlighted the fight over Fed independence, dampening expectations of politically‑driven rate cuts.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed chair

Trump’s nomination of Warsh, a known Trump ally, signaled a potential shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, prompting the market to further price in lower‑rate outcomes.

Fed minutes from Jan. 27‑28 meeting show vote to keep rates steady

↓ 1.5% drops to 9%5%

The Fed’s decision to hold rates at about 3.6% after three cuts reinforced expectations of a pause, causing a sharp drop in the odds of further cuts.

Inflation data shows prices tick up in November, signaling persistent inflation

↑ 4.25% rises to 9%4%

The Commerce Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than the previous month, indicating inflation remains above the Fed's target. This data reduced market expectations for near-term rate cuts, supporting higher rate outcomes.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 39%8%

January meeting minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants preferred to wait for further inflation declines before implementing additional cuts, tempering expectations for near‑term easing.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran resigns from White House post amid Fed leadership changes

↓ 3.25% drops to 83%6%

Stephen Miran stepped down from his White House role while remaining a Fed governor, highlighting ongoing personnel shifts and political dynamics within the Fed. This event contributed to market uncertainty about future rate decisions and leadership direction, impacting confidence in rate cut outcomes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cuts

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows following the Fed's three rate cuts last year, reflecting market expectations of stable or lower rates. This supported the view that the Fed might not raise rates significantly before 2027.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair

↑ 4.25% drops to 10%5%

Trump’s announcement of Warsh, a known rate‑cut advocate, heightened expectations of future rate reductions, further decreasing the market’s confidence in a 3.25% lower bound and increasing the chance of a 4.25% upper bound.

Kevin Warsh nominated by President Trump as next Federal Reserve Chair

President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, raising market uncertainty due to Warsh's reputation as a rate hawk but recent support for lower rates. The nomination highlighted the political pressures on the Fed and concerns about maintaining its independence, influencing market expectations for future rate decisions.

Prosecutors attempt unannounced visit to Fed building amid investigation

Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's headquarters construction site related to the ongoing investigation into Powell's testimony. The visit was rebuffed, highlighting tensions between the Justice Department and the Fed, which likely contributed to market uncertainty about rate policy.

Fed minutes reveal divided views on further rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%10%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed a split among officials on whether to cut rates further, with some favoring a pause until more inflation progress is made. This division contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of deeper rate cuts by year-end.

Fed holds interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6% after three consecutive cuts in 2025, reflecting caution amid mixed economic signals and political pressures. This pause influenced market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further cuts in the near term.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair

↓ 1.25% rises to 12%3%

President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to replace Powell, signaling a likely shift toward more aggressive rate cuts and prompting traders to reassess lower‑rate outcomes.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents

↓ 1.75% drops to 12%7%

Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could favor a more politically aligned board, increasing market expectations of future rate cuts.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring and rising unemployment

↓ 3.25% rises to 93%3%

Delayed government reports revealed weak job gains and a rise in unemployment to 4.6%, signaling a cooling labor market. This increased market expectations for Fed rate cuts to levels like ↓3.25%, reflected in price movements.

Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 71%10%

December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, below expectations, despite recent Fed rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This mixed economic signal contributed to uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and affected market pricing for rate cuts.

Supreme Court hears arguments on the attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↑ 4.25% drops to 9%5%

The high‑profile case heightened uncertainty about Fed independence, prompting a pullback in rate‑cut expectations and lowering the "↑ 4.25%" contract.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair

↓ 2.5% drops to 25%8%

Trump’s announcement of a new chair candidate known for favoring lower rates shifted expectations toward further cuts, pulling down prices for lower‑rate outcomes.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents

Bessent’s proposal to require regional Fed presidents to live in their districts could increase White House influence over the Fed, reinforcing market expectations of a more dovish stance and further price declines for lower‑rate outcomes.

Fed officials vote to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.0% rises to 81%2%

In early February, the Fed's rate-setting committee voted 10-2 to keep rates steady, reflecting caution due to inflation and labor market data, which influenced market expectations for rate cuts to moderate levels like 3.0% or 2.75%.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

Ahead of a Fed meeting, officials signaled a pause in rate changes to assess economic conditions, reflecting divisions within the Fed and contributing to market uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts or hikes.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising Fed independence concerns

The Supreme Court considered Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as politically motivated to influence Fed policy. This legal battle underscored risks to Fed independence, affecting market confidence in rate policy stability.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↑ 4.25% rises to 12%2%

President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and political influence. Markets reacted to uncertainty about Warsh's approach to interest rates and Fed independence, affecting rate cut and hike probabilities.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%5%

Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Fed Chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy towards lower interest rates, but Warsh faces challenges balancing Fed independence, market expectations, and Trump’s demands, contributing to market volatility.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 86%4%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, raising questions about potential shifts in Fed policy and political influence, which contributed to market uncertainty and lower probabilities for aggressive rate hikes or cuts.

Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 79%2%

President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed signaled potential shifts in monetary policy direction, with Warsh facing challenges balancing Fed independence and Trump’s demands for lower rates, impacting market rate expectations.

Strong hiring in January contrasts with weak 2025 job growth

↓ 3.0% dips to 79%2%

January 2026 jobs report showed a surprising 130,000 jobs added, signaling some stabilization after a weak 2025. This improved labor market data reduced urgency for Fed rate cuts, impacting market pricing.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and increasing uncertainty about future interest rate decisions, impacting market pricing for rate cuts and hikes.

Fed minutes reveal officials want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%10%

Minutes from the January 27-28 Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to wait for further inflation decline before cutting rates again, reflecting a cautious stance amid a stabilizing job market and inflation above target. This dampened market expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%6%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed held rates unchanged at about 3.6%, signaling a pause to assess economic data and inflation trends. This decision reflected the Fed's cautious approach and contributed to market expectations that rates might not fall significantly soon.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 81%8%

Minutes from the January 27-28 Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious approach. This dampened market expectations for near-term rate cuts, leading to price declines for larger cut outcomes.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%5%

Ahead of the January FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach given mixed economic data and political pressures. This tempered market expectations for further rate cuts, contributing to a decline in prices for lower rate outcomes.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 88%8%

Following three rate cuts in 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting solid economic activity and improving risk balance. The Fed emphasized data dependency for future moves, signaling a pause in cuts amid mixed economic signals.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid cautious economic outlook

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed held rates steady after three cuts in 2025, signaling a wait-and-see approach due to mixed economic signals. This led to a stabilization and eventual decline in market probabilities for further rate cuts or hikes in 2026.

Fed keeps rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty and political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady at about 3.6% after recent cuts, focusing on economic data rather than political pressure. This decision reflected the committee's cautious approach amid mixed inflation and employment signals.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty

↓ 0% drops to 5%5%

Ahead of the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, Fed officials signaled a pause in rate changes to assess economic data, reflecting divisions within the committee and ongoing inflation concerns. This expectation influenced market prices, particularly lowering confidence in further rate cuts to near zero levels.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 81%8%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials wanted to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, signaling a more cautious approach and reducing market expectations for deep cuts to levels like 3.0% or below.

Fed holds interest rates steady amid inflation and job market uncertainty

At the January FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6%, reflecting a balance between persistent inflation and signs of a stabilizing labor market. Chair Powell indicated the Fed would wait to assess economic developments before making further moves, dampening expectations for immediate rate cuts.

Fed minutes show majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

Minutes from the January 27-28 Fed meeting revealed that most officials preferred to keep rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious approach despite some calls for cuts. This contributed to market expectations of limited rate reductions in 2026.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 66%11%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious approach to rate cuts despite some labor market weakness. This stance contributed to market lowering odds of deep rate cuts in 2026.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 92%1%

Ahead of the January 27-28 Fed meeting, officials signaled a pause in rate changes to assess economic data, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and labor market conditions. This stance influenced market pricing toward stable or slightly lower rates.

Federal Reserve keeps key interest rate steady amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed decided to hold rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a majority view that inflation needed to fall further before more cuts. This decision defied calls for lower rates and signaled caution, affecting market pricing for rate cuts.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed Chair

↓ 2.5% drops to 33%6%

The nomination raised expectations of a more dovish chair, briefly lifting the "↓ 2.5%" and "↓ 2.25%" contracts before market participants reassessed the political risk.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid mixed data

↑ 4.25% drops to 40%5%

The FOMC voted to hold the target rate steady after recent job and inflation reports, reducing optimism for further cuts and causing a modest rise in the probability of a higher rate outcome.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, Powell attends

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, with Chair Powell attending the oral argument. This unprecedented legal challenge underscored political risks to Fed governance but did not immediately alter rate policy expectations.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 2.25% drops to 8%6%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case with major implications for Fed independence and political control over interest rate policy. The court appeared inclined to allow Cook to remain, maintaining uncertainty about the Fed board's composition and future rate decisions.

Supreme Court hears case on President’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

The high court’s oral arguments on the legality of removing Governor Cook highlighted the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, raising the probability of a more politically driven rate policy and influencing market sentiment toward lower rates.

Supreme Court oral argument on Lisa Cook firing case

↓ 2.0% dips to 12%2%

The argument highlighted the potential for a Trump‑appointed Fed chair, raising speculation of more aggressive rate cuts, which further depressed the market for lower‑rate outcomes.

Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 2.75% drops to 44%7%

The high‑court case heightened uncertainty about the composition of the Fed board, leading markets to price in a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, but also a risk of political backlash.

Justice Department subpoenas Fed over renovation testimony

↓ 2.0% dips to 10%3%

The DOJ served subpoenas to the Federal Reserve related to Chair Powell’s testimony on a $2.5 billion building renovation, intensifying the political clash and prompting market fears of rate‑cut pressure from the White House.

Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Lisa Cook firing case

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook underscored the political tensions surrounding the Fed's independence. This event contributed to market uncertainty about the Fed's future policy direction and leadership stability.

Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

The Supreme Court considered the unprecedented case of President Trump’s effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve and its independence. The case heightened uncertainty about the Fed’s governance and future rate decisions, affecting market pricing for rate cuts.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% jumps to 95%5%

The Supreme Court considered Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and political interference, which influenced market perceptions of Fed governance and rate policy.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official with close ties to the administration, signaled potential shifts in Fed policy and governance. Markets reacted to the possibility of changes in rate-setting dynamics and political influence over the Fed.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 86%4%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a case with significant implications for the Fed's independence and political control over interest rate policy, increasing market concerns about potential political interference.

Federal prosecutors seek access to Fed building amid renovation probe

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

Prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed headquarters construction site related to a $2.5 billion renovation investigation, escalating tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed. This event added uncertainty about Fed leadership and policy direction, impacting market pricing on rate outcomes.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for next Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

President Trump selected Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with a reputation as an interest-rate hawk who recently supported lower rates, to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh's nomination introduced uncertainty about future rate policy amid political and Senate scrutiny.

Fed Chair Powell faces Justice Department subpoena amid political pressure

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

The Justice Department subpoenaed the Federal Reserve regarding Chair Powell's congressional testimony, seen as an attempt to pressure the Fed to cut rates. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and economic basis for rate decisions, affecting market confidence and rate expectations.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh signaled potential shifts in Fed policy and governance, raising market speculation about future interest rate decisions and the Fed's independence.

Central bankers worldwide express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Powell and emphasized the importance of central bank independence, reinforcing confidence in the Fed's autonomy amid political pressures and the DOJ probe.

Fed Chair Powell publicly rebukes DOJ investigation as political pressure

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Powell issued a video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed's independence and pressure it to cut rates. This public defense aimed to reassure markets of the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions despite political attacks.

Fed minutes reveal split over December rate cut

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%15%

The released minutes showed a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point cut in December, highlighting dissent among officials and increasing uncertainty about future cuts, which drove the market lower for the 3%‑3.25% outcomes.

Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pretext

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%4%

Powell released a video stating that the Justice Department's subpoenas were intended to pressure the Fed on rate policy, increasing concerns about political interference and raising the odds of a higher‑rate outcome.

Powell attends Supreme Court oral argument on Cook case

↓ 2.25% drops to 24%6%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared at the Supreme Court as it heard arguments on President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook, underscoring political pressure on the Fed and raising doubts about future policy independence.

Fed Chair Powell condemns Justice Department subpoenas as political pressure

↓ 3.25% jumps to 95%5%

Jerome Powell publicly stated that subpoenas from the Justice Department were pretexts to force the Fed to cut rates, highlighting political interference concerns. This reinforced market uncertainty about Fed independence and future rate decisions.

Fed Chair Powell says subpoenas are 'pretexts' to punish Fed for not cutting rates

Jerome Powell revealed that the Justice Department subpoenaed the Fed as a political move to pressure the central bank to cut rates more aggressively, underscoring the political tensions affecting Fed independence and market perceptions of rate policy.

Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenas are 'pretexts' to punish Fed for rate decisions

↓ 3.25% jumps to 95%5%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Justice Department subpoenaed the Fed as part of a criminal investigation, which he described as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut rates. This event underscored political tensions but reinforced the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, affecting market confidence in rate stability.

Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ investigation amid political pressure

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly criticized a Justice Department subpoena related to his congressional testimony, framing it as politically motivated to pressure the Fed into cutting rates. This event underscored political tensions but the Fed maintained focus on economic data for rate decisions, influencing market confidence.

Fed Chair Powell releases video condemning DOJ subpoenas as political pretext

↓ 2.25% plunges to 39%18%

Powell’s public defense of Fed independence suggested resistance to political pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would stay on hold rather than cut further, nudging prices lower.

Fed Chair Powell issues video statement condemning DOJ subpoenas

↓ 3.25% plunges to 50%20%

Powell publicly framed the Justice Department subpoenas as political pressure to force rate cuts, reinforcing market concerns that political interference could lead to lower rates, which pushed down the odds for the 3.25% lower bound.

Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure to cut rates

Jerome Powell publicly condemned subpoenas from the Justice Department related to a Fed building renovation investigation, calling them pretexts for political pressure to force rate cuts. This heightened political risk and uncertainty around Fed independence, impacting market confidence in aggressive rate cuts.

DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Federal prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovations. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, escalating tensions and impacting market confidence in Fed independence.

Fed Chair Powell condemns subpoenas amid political pressure

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

Powell publicly condemned Justice Department subpoenas as politically motivated attempts to pressure the Fed to cut rates more aggressively. This highlighted the political tensions surrounding Fed independence and may have contributed to cautious market expectations about rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reveals DOJ subpoenas and criminal indictment threat

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment over his testimony about a $2.5 billion renovation project. This unprecedented political pressure raised concerns about Fed independence and influenced market uncertainty about future rate policy.

Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenas are pretext to force rate cuts

Powell released a video statement accusing the Justice Department of using criminal subpoenas to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, reinforcing concerns about political interference and increasing expectations of further rate reductions.

Fed Chair Powell emphasizes economic basis for interest rate decisions amid political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

Following Justice Department subpoenas and political pressure, Powell stressed that Fed rate decisions are driven by economic data, not politics. This reassured markets about Fed independence, stabilizing expectations and influencing prices for rate outcomes around 3.25% and 3.0%.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 81%13%

In early 2026, the Fed opted to keep interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting mixed economic signals including steady employment and cooling inflation. The decision indicated a pause in rate cuts as officials awaited clearer data, contributing to a decline in market expectations for further easing.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair candidate

↓ 2.75% drops to 45%10%

President Trump announced former Fed official Kevin Warsh as his preferred nominee to replace Powell, raising concerns that the new chair would push for lower rates under political pressure, briefly lifting lower‑rate odds.

Federal government shutdown delays data releases

↓ 2.5% drops to 45%7%

A six‑week shutdown postponed key labor and inflation data, creating uncertainty that weighed on market expectations for further rate reductions.

Fed cuts rates for the third time in 2025, lowering the target to about 3.6%

↓ 3.0% jumps to 89%5%

A third consecutive quarter‑point cut was announced, reinforcing expectations of further easing and pushing the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts higher.

Core CPI rises to 2.8% in November

↓ 2.75% drops to 47%8%

The Commerce Department reported core consumer‑price inflation at 2.8% YoY, above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains sticky and reducing pressure for aggressive cuts.

FOMC minutes show wait-and-see approach to future rate cuts

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%27%

The minutes showed the FOMC took a wait-and-see approach, with some officials wanting to keep rates on hold due to stalled inflation progress. This contributed to the market's price decline for rate-cut options.

Fed minutes reveal split over further cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%11%

Minutes from the December meeting showed that several officials wanted more inflation progress before additional cuts, reinforcing market belief that the rate‑cut cycle may be ending.

Fed announces quarter‑point rate cut to 3.6% at December meeting

↓ 2.5% plunges to 57%32%

The Fed officially cut its key rate by a quarter point, confirming market expectations of lower rates and driving down prices for all downward‑rate outcomes.

Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.0% plunges to 60%22%

The DOJ announced it would cease its criminal probe into Chairman Powell, removing a major source of political pressure and reducing expectations of emergency rate cuts.

Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts to boost labor market

↓ 3.0% dips to 68%4%

December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, despite the Fed's recent rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This data complicated the Fed's policy outlook and influenced market expectations for future rate moves.

FOMC meeting signals cautious approach to 2026 rate cuts

The December meeting highlighted divisions within the FOMC, with nine voting members supporting a cut and two holding rates steady. The cautious tone and uncertainty about future cuts influenced market pricing for all rate decline options.

Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points

↓ 3.25% jumps to 90%7%

The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive 25-basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. This move followed easing labor market conditions and inflation remaining above target, signaling a cautious approach to monetary easing. The decision influenced market expectations, initially increasing the likelihood of rate cuts to around 3.25%.

FOMC meeting signals December rate cut likely

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%68%

The FOMC meeting on December 18 was widely anticipated to result in a 25-basis point rate cut, with market pricing at 95% likelihood. This decision was based on November jobs and inflation data showing moderation, leading to significant price drops for all down-market outcomes.

FOMC meeting confirms rate cut amid inflation moderation and labor market caution

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting confirmed a widely expected 25-basis point rate cut, reflecting signs of moderating inflation and a cautious labor market. The Fed signaled a more measured approach to future cuts, with projections suggesting rates settling between 3.5% and 4% by year-end 2025.

Inflation data shows cooling trend

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%68%

November inflation data showed the annual rate cooling to 3.1%, down from 3.2%, with core inflation at 4%. This moderation supported the FOMC's decision to cut rates, as inflation was no longer a primary risk factor.

November jobs report shows slight uptick in unemployment

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%68%

The November jobs report showed the unemployment rate edged up to 3.7%, with 199,000 jobs added. This labor market softening supported the FOMC's rate cut decision, as downside risks to employment increased.

Fed minutes reveal split over further cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 82%7%

Minutes from the December meeting showed two officials voted to keep rates unchanged and one favored a larger half‑point cut, highlighting uncertainty about additional easing and dampening expectations for further declines.

Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 2.75% jumps to 55%9%

The high‑court hearing underscored the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, increasing speculation that a Trump‑friendly chair could lower rates sharply.

Fed cuts rates by a quarter point amid internal dissent

↓ 3.25% drops to 71%12%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to about 3.6%, the first cut since September. The close vote and dissent signaled uncertainty, prompting traders to lower expectations for further cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by quarter point amid internal dissent

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, but the decision was contentious with a 9-3 vote and some officials dissenting. This highlighted uncertainty about the balance between inflation and labor market weakness, influencing market expectations for future rate moves.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to 3.50%-3.75% in December 2025

↓ 3.25% jumps to 96%7%

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025, responding to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation above target. This move set the federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a more accommodative stance but caution about further cuts.

Fed cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid divided officials

↓ 3.25% jumps to 88%6%

At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was contentious with a 9-3 vote and some officials dissenting. This highlighted the committee's split between concerns over weak hiring and elevated inflation, influencing market expectations for further cuts.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter point at December meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to about 3.6%, the first cut of the year, signaling a move toward lower rates and prompting market participants to price in a higher chance of the lower‑rate outcomes.

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid internal dissent

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%6%

At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% for the third time in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening job market despite inflation risks. The 9-3 vote revealed significant internal divisions, influencing market expectations for rate cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid divided committee

↓ 3.0% surges to 84%16%

At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, but the decision was contentious with a 9-3 vote and dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This reflected uncertainty about inflation and labor market conditions, influencing market pricing of future rate moves.

Fed cuts interest rate by quarter point amid labor market concerns

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25% for the third time in 2025, lowering it to about 3.6%, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite ongoing inflation. The decision was marked by notable dissent, highlighting uncertainty within the Fed about the appropriate policy path.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter point at December meeting

↓ 3.25% plunges to 70%20%

The Federal Reserve voted 9‑3 to cut its benchmark rate by 0.25%, the third cut of the year, signaling willingness to lower rates despite inflation concerns, which boosted odds of lower‑rate outcomes.

Federal Reserve cuts rate to 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%62%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to cut the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, with two members voting to hold rates steady and one voting for a 50-basis point cut. This decision marked the third consecutive rate cut, ending the year at the lowest level since 2022.

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%62%

The FOMC lowered the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in December, marking the third consecutive rate cut. This move was driven by moderating inflation and a slightly weakening labor market, significantly affecting all down-market outcomes.

FOMC cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% plunges to 27%56%

The FOMC lowered the target rate range following economic data showing moderate expansion, slowing job gains, and inflation above target. The decision marked the third consecutive rate cut, significantly impacting market pricing for all rate decline outcomes.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic expansion

↓ 3.25% dips to 88%1%

In Jerome Powell's likely final meeting as Chair, the FOMC kept rates steady, noting solid economic activity and low job gains. This decision tempered expectations for further cuts, causing a slight decline in the probability of rate cuts to 3.25% and 3.0%.

FOMC cuts rate to 3.5%-3.75% with 9-3 vote and reserve management purchases

↓ 3.0% surges to 72%21%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to lower the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran voting no and preferring a 50-basis-point cut. The decision to begin reserve management purchases added policy uncertainty.

Fed minutes reveal a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point rate cut to about 3.6%

↓ 3.25% jumps to 90%9%

The released minutes from the Dec 9‑10 FOMC meeting showed a narrow majority supporting a cut, signaling a higher probability of lower rates and boosting the "↓ 3.25%" contract.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter point in December meeting

↓ 3.25% plunges to 70%20%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to cut the target federal funds rate by 0.25%, the lowest level in nearly three years, signaling a move toward lower rates and boosting the probability of a 3.25% lower bound being hit.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%5%

In December 2025, the Fed delivered its third rate cut of the year, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. The decision was marked by internal divisions among officials, with some dissenting votes reflecting uncertainty about the pace of future cuts. This move was widely anticipated and signaled a cautious easing approach amid mixed economic signals.

Justice Department subpoenas Fed over renovation investigation

↓ 3.0% jumps to 89%5%

The DOJ served subpoenas to the Fed, intensifying political pressure on the central bank and prompting market participants to anticipate a more dovish stance to protect the Fed’s independence.

Consumer prices tick up in November as Americans keep spending

↓ 3.0% drops to 67%5%

November 2025 data showed inflation slightly rising to 2.8% year-over-year and consumer spending increasing, indicating a solid economy. This reduced market expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, lowering probabilities for outcomes like ↓3.0% and ↓2.75%.

Trump administration escalates pressure on Federal Reserve with DOJ subpoenas

↓ 3.25% jumps to 82%13%

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed over testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation, marking an unprecedented escalation in political pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. This heightened uncertainty about Fed independence and future rate decisions, impacting market expectations for rate cuts.

Fed minutes show divided views on next rate steps

↓ 3.25% surges to 89%38%

The minutes revealed that those who preferred to keep rates on hold expressed concern that progress toward the 2% inflation objective had stalled, while others wanted to cut rates. This contributed to the market's price volatility.

November inflation data shows prices tick up amid strong consumer spending

↓ 3.25% surges to 69%18%

The Commerce Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October, with solid consumer spending growth. This indicated persistent inflationary pressures, reducing expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts and causing market prices for lower rate outcomes to decline.

Fed officials signal possible rate cut in upcoming December meeting

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Minutes from the Fed's November meeting indicated a close vote on a quarter‑point cut, raising expectations that the target rate could fall to around 3.6%, which boosted bets on lower rate outcomes.

FOMC minutes reveal divided views on December rate cut

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

The FOMC voted 10-2 to cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% to the 3.75%-4.00% range, with dissenters split between tighter and looser policy. This division highlighted uncertainty about future rate moves, initially supporting market expectations for a cut to around 3.25%.

FOMC votes 10-2 to cut rates to 3.75%-4.00% with split dissents

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, with two dissents split between tighter and looser policy, signaling division on future cuts. This caused significant price swings across rate-cut options.

Consumer prices tick up in November, signaling persistent inflation

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

The Commerce Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November 2025, slightly higher than October, with solid consumer spending growth. This data suggested inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent Fed rate cuts and supporting higher rates.

Consumer spending and inflation data show persistent economic strength

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

November 2025 data revealed that consumer prices and spending remained robust, with inflation slightly rising and consumer spending climbing, signaling a strong economy. This reduced expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts, causing prices for larger cuts to drop.

Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran resigns from White House Council of Economic Advisers

Stephen Miran stepped down from his White House post while remaining on the Fed board, ending a controversial dual role. This highlighted political tensions around Fed independence and influenced market expectations about Fed policy continuity and rate decisions.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

President Donald Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and increased political influence. This nomination raised market uncertainty about future rate decisions, impacting probabilities for various rate levels.

Mortgage rates near 2025 low as Fed cuts anticipated

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Mortgage rates eased to 6.15% as the Fed began rate cuts in September, signaling lower borrowing costs and influencing market expectations for further cuts.

Fed officials signal divided views on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a split among officials, with some favoring additional rate cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady due to persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market. This division contributed to fluctuating market expectations for rate cuts at various levels.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↑ 4.25% plunges to 10%40%

President Donald Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and market expectations about interest rate decisions. This nomination raised questions about the Fed's independence and the likelihood of rate cuts or hikes, impacting market pricing on Fed rate outcomes.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell

↓ 3.25% surges to 69%18%

President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and market uncertainty about future interest rate decisions. This nomination raised questions about the Fed's independence and the likelihood of rate cuts, impacting market pricing for lower rate outcomes.

Trump nominates Stephen Miran to Federal Reserve Board amid controversy

↓ 3.25% surges to 69%18%

President Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board of Governors while he simultaneously held a White House position, an unusual arrangement that raised questions about Fed independence. Miran pledged to resign from the White House post if he remained on the Fed board, highlighting tensions around Fed governance and potential impacts on rate decisions.