Recent FOMC projections and market pricing reflect persistent inflation pressures above the 2% target alongside resilient growth and labor market conditions, keeping the federal funds rate path elevated into 2027. The September 2026 dot plot showed a median endpoint of 4.1% for both year-end 2026 and 2027 after the recent 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% range, with most participants anticipating at least one additional increase before year-end and limited easing thereafter. Futures markets currently embed further tightening through early 2027, producing a distribution clustered around 4.00-4.50% that aligns closely with Polymarket odds. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and PCE releases, the pace of any remaining hikes, and whether inflation moderates enough to permit cuts later in 2027.