Persistent drought, minimal Alpine snowmelt, and below-normal rainfall across the Rhine basin have driven water levels to 30-year lows, with the Kaub gauge at 29 cm and similar readings at Maxau and Lobith as of early September 2026. Shipping remains severely restricted, with vessels operating at sharply reduced loads. Recovery to normal navigable depths requires sustained precipitation over the catchment area, which current forecasts do not project imminently. This positions October as the leading window in trader consensus, followed by late September, while the elevated probability assigned to no return before November reflects ongoing dry conditions and historical patterns of slow autumn rebound.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 44%
September 15 - 30, 2026 29%
No return before November 1, 2026 20%
Before September 15, 2026 6.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
6%
September 15 - 30, 2026
29%
October 1 - 31, 2026
44%
No return before November 1, 2026
20%
October 1 - 31, 2026 44%
September 15 - 30, 2026 29%
No return before November 1, 2026 20%
Before September 15, 2026 6.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
$1,988 KL.
6%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$111 KL.
29%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$210 KL.
44%
No return before November 1, 2026
$181 KL.
20%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent drought, minimal Alpine snowmelt, and below-normal rainfall across the Rhine basin have driven water levels to 30-year lows, with the Kaub gauge at 29 cm and similar readings at Maxau and Lobith as of early September 2026. Shipping remains severely restricted, with vessels operating at sharply reduced loads. Recovery to normal navigable depths requires sustained precipitation over the catchment area, which current forecasts do not project imminently. This positions October as the leading window in trader consensus, followed by late September, while the elevated probability assigned to no return before November reflects ongoing dry conditions and historical patterns of slow autumn rebound.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Thị trường mở: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,490Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent drought, minimal Alpine snowmelt, and below-normal rainfall across the Rhine basin have driven water levels to 30-year lows, with the Kaub gauge at 29 cm and similar readings at Maxau and Lobith as of early September 2026. Shipping remains severely restricted, with vessels operating at sharply reduced loads. Recovery to normal navigable depths requires sustained precipitation over the catchment area, which current forecasts do not project imminently. This positions October as the leading window in trader consensus, followed by late September, while the elevated probability assigned to no return before November reflects ongoing dry conditions and historical patterns of slow autumn rebound.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Khối lượng
$2,490Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Persistent drought, minimal Alpine snowmelt, and below-normal rainfall across the Rhine basin have driven water levels to 30-year lows, with the Kaub gauge at 29 cm and similar readings at Maxau and Lobith as of early September 2026. Shipping remains severely restricted, with vessels operating at sharply reduced loads. Recovery to normal navigable depths requires sustained precipitation over the catchment area, which current forecasts do not project imminently. This positions October as the leading window in trader consensus, followed by late September, while the elevated probability assigned to no return before November reflects ongoing dry conditions and historical patterns of slow autumn rebound.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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