The strong scientific consensus on long-term anthropogenic warming from elevated greenhouse gas concentrations is the primary driver behind traders assigning 57.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record and 35% to first place. Observational data from recent years show 2023 and 2024 setting new global temperature records, with the post-El Niño transition to neutral or La Niña conditions expected to moderate but not reverse the upward trend. Climate models indicate that baseline temperatures will likely keep 2026 within the top few years historically, though exact ranking hinges on seasonal variability and regional heat patterns. NOAA and similar agencies will release updated global temperature analyses through mid-year, providing key data points that could shift market-implied odds as more observations accumulate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNăm 2026 sẽ xếp hạng ở đâu trong số những năm nóng nhất được ghi nhận?
Năm 2026 sẽ xếp hạng ở đâu trong số những năm nóng nhất được ghi nhận?
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn 2.3%
$2,821,661 KL.
$2,821,661 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn 2.3%
$2,821,661 KL.
$2,821,661 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
1
$453,744 KL.
35%
2
$325,828 KL.
57%
3
$428,462 KL.
2%
4
$416,579 KL.
3%
5
$732,047 KL.
1%
Thứ 6 hoặc thấp hơn
$465,002 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The strong scientific consensus on long-term anthropogenic warming from elevated greenhouse gas concentrations is the primary driver behind traders assigning 57.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record and 35% to first place. Observational data from recent years show 2023 and 2024 setting new global temperature records, with the post-El Niño transition to neutral or La Niña conditions expected to moderate but not reverse the upward trend. Climate models indicate that baseline temperatures will likely keep 2026 within the top few years historically, though exact ranking hinges on seasonal variability and regional heat patterns. NOAA and similar agencies will release updated global temperature analyses through mid-year, providing key data points that could shift market-implied odds as more observations accumulate.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,821,661Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The strong scientific consensus on long-term anthropogenic warming from elevated greenhouse gas concentrations is the primary driver behind traders assigning 57.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record and 35% to first place. Observational data from recent years show 2023 and 2024 setting new global temperature records, with the post-El Niño transition to neutral or La Niña conditions expected to moderate but not reverse the upward trend. Climate models indicate that baseline temperatures will likely keep 2026 within the top few years historically, though exact ranking hinges on seasonal variability and regional heat patterns. NOAA and similar agencies will release updated global temperature analyses through mid-year, providing key data points that could shift market-implied odds as more observations accumulate.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,821,661Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong scientific consensus on long-term anthropogenic warming from elevated greenhouse gas concentrations is the primary driver behind traders assigning 57.5% implied probability to 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record and 35% to first place. Observational data from recent years show 2023 and 2024 setting new global temperature records, with the post-El Niño transition to neutral or La Niña conditions expected to moderate but not reverse the upward trend. Climate models indicate that baseline temperatures will likely keep 2026 within the top few years historically, though exact ranking hinges on seasonal variability and regional heat patterns. NOAA and similar agencies will release updated global temperature analyses through mid-year, providing key data points that could shift market-implied odds as more observations accumulate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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