The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Amul Thapar 22%
James Ho 17%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Aileen Cannon 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 19, 2029
Amul Thapar
22%
James Ho
17%
Andrew Oldham
13%
Aileen Cannon
16%
Steven Menashi
12%
Patrick Bumatay
11%
Neomi Rao
9%
Gregory Katsas
17%
Mike Lee
6%
John Sauer
5%
Ted Cruz
27%
Amul Thapar 22%
James Ho 17%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Aileen Cannon 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 19, 2029
Amul Thapar
$155 KL.
22%
James Ho
$457 KL.
17%
Andrew Oldham
$637 KL.
13%
Aileen Cannon
$243 KL.
16%
Steven Menashi
$103 KL.
12%
Patrick Bumatay
$881 KL.
11%
Neomi Rao
$108 KL.
9%
Gregory Katsas
$127 KL.
17%
Mike Lee
$125 KL.
6%
John Sauer
$121 KL.
5%
Ted Cruz
$160 KL.
27%
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,118Ngày kết thúc
Jan 19, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$3,118Ngày kết thúc
Jan 19, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The prediction market for the Trump administration’s next Supreme Court nominee shows a tight distribution of implied probabilities, with no candidate above 27 percent amid widespread options including sitting judges, senators, and other conservative figures. This balance stems from the absence of an announced vacancy and the administration’s broad discretion in selecting from a deep bench of potential nominees who could secure Senate confirmation. Key influences include upcoming Court composition needs, Senate vote thresholds, and any signals from the White House on priorities such as originalist credentials or regional representation. A retirement announcement, formal nomination, or confirmation hearing timeline would likely concentrate trader sentiment behind specific names.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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