Islam Makhachev captured the UFC welterweight title in November 2025 with a dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322, establishing himself as the clear frontrunner to remain champion through the end of 2026. Traders price his retention at 72.5% due to his elite wrestling, grappling control, and seamless move up from lightweight, where he compiled an undefeated run before vacating that belt. Ian Machado Garry sits at 15.7% as the top domestic contender following recent statement wins, while Carlos Prates, Michael Morales, and others register minimal implied probabilities amid a deep but unproven queue. Makhachev’s first title defense timeline, potential matchups with Garry or rising prospects, and the division’s stylistic challenges for challengers underpin the current consensus reflected in these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIslam Makhachev 80%
Ian Machado Garry 10.8%
Carlos Prates 1.3%
Shavkat Rakhmonov <1%
$608,647 KL.
$608,647 KL.
Islam Makhachev
74%
Ian Machado Garry
16%
Carlos Prates
1%
Shavkat Rakhmonov
<1%
Kamaru Usman
<1%
Michael Morales
<1%
Sean Brady
<1%
Gabriel Bonfim
<1%
Jack Della Maddalena
<1%
Belal Muhammad
<1%
Leon Edwards
<1%
Joaquin Buckley
<1%
Islam Makhachev 80%
Ian Machado Garry 10.8%
Carlos Prates 1.3%
Shavkat Rakhmonov <1%
$608,647 KL.
$608,647 KL.
Islam Makhachev
74%
Ian Machado Garry
16%
Carlos Prates
1%
Shavkat Rakhmonov
<1%
Kamaru Usman
<1%
Michael Morales
<1%
Sean Brady
<1%
Gabriel Bonfim
<1%
Jack Della Maddalena
<1%
Belal Muhammad
<1%
Leon Edwards
<1%
Joaquin Buckley
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Thị trường mở: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Islam Makhachev captured the UFC welterweight title in November 2025 with a dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322, establishing himself as the clear frontrunner to remain champion through the end of 2026. Traders price his retention at 72.5% due to his elite wrestling, grappling control, and seamless move up from lightweight, where he compiled an undefeated run before vacating that belt. Ian Machado Garry sits at 15.7% as the top domestic contender following recent statement wins, while Carlos Prates, Michael Morales, and others register minimal implied probabilities amid a deep but unproven queue. Makhachev’s first title defense timeline, potential matchups with Garry or rising prospects, and the division’s stylistic challenges for challengers underpin the current consensus reflected in these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp