The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
8% khả năng
$343,987 KL.
$343,987 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
8% khả năng
$343,987 KL.
$343,987 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Thị trường mở: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$343,987Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Khối lượng
$343,987Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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