Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 60.5% implied probability for any Category 4 hurricane—Saffir-Simpson winds of 130 mph or higher—making continental U.S. landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2026 season's projected below-normal activity amid an emerging El Niño (61% NOAA chance by summer). This follows 2025's active basin with three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that intensified rapidly over warm sea surface temperatures but steered offshore, sparing the U.S. its first hurricane-free landfall year since 2015 per National Hurricane Center records. Historical data shows Category 4 U.S. strikes average under 0.2 per season since 1851, with none since 2022's Ian; preseason outlooks from Colorado State University forecast 13 named storms and six hurricanes versus norms. NHC tropical outlooks begin May 15, with NOAA's full update imminent, as model consensus weighs El Niño shear against persistent warm Atlantic waters favoring potential rapid intensification.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$327,006 KL.
$327,006 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$327,006 KL.
$327,006 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 60.5% implied probability for any Category 4 hurricane—Saffir-Simpson winds of 130 mph or higher—making continental U.S. landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2026 season's projected below-normal activity amid an emerging El Niño (61% NOAA chance by summer). This follows 2025's active basin with three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that intensified rapidly over warm sea surface temperatures but steered offshore, sparing the U.S. its first hurricane-free landfall year since 2015 per National Hurricane Center records. Historical data shows Category 4 U.S. strikes average under 0.2 per season since 1851, with none since 2022's Ian; preseason outlooks from Colorado State University forecast 13 named storms and six hurricanes versus norms. NHC tropical outlooks begin May 15, with NOAA's full update imminent, as model consensus weighs El Niño shear against persistent warm Atlantic waters favoring potential rapid intensification.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Thị trường mở: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$327,006Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 60.5% implied probability for any Category 4 hurricane—Saffir-Simpson winds of 130 mph or higher—making continental U.S. landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2026 season's projected below-normal activity amid an emerging El Niño (61% NOAA chance by summer). This follows 2025's active basin with three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that intensified rapidly over warm sea surface temperatures but steered offshore, sparing the U.S. its first hurricane-free landfall year since 2015 per National Hurricane Center records. Historical data shows Category 4 U.S. strikes average under 0.2 per season since 1851, with none since 2022's Ian; preseason outlooks from Colorado State University forecast 13 named storms and six hurricanes versus norms. NHC tropical outlooks begin May 15, with NOAA's full update imminent, as model consensus weighs El Niño shear against persistent warm Atlantic waters favoring potential rapid intensification.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Khối lượng
$327,006Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 60.5% implied probability for any Category 4 hurricane—Saffir-Simpson winds of 130 mph or higher—making continental U.S. landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2026 season's projected below-normal activity amid an emerging El Niño (61% NOAA chance by summer). This follows 2025's active basin with three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that intensified rapidly over warm sea surface temperatures but steered offshore, sparing the U.S. its first hurricane-free landfall year since 2015 per National Hurricane Center records. Historical data shows Category 4 U.S. strikes average under 0.2 per season since 1851, with none since 2022's Ian; preseason outlooks from Colorado State University forecast 13 named storms and six hurricanes versus norms. NHC tropical outlooks begin May 15, with NOAA's full update imminent, as model consensus weighs El Niño shear against persistent warm Atlantic waters favoring potential rapid intensification.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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