Recent seasonal forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with Colorado State University projecting just six hurricanes and two major hurricanes amid an emerging El Niño that elevates upper-level wind shear and suppresses rapid intensification. This aligns with the historical rarity of Category 5 landfalls—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—with only four such events striking the continental U.S. since 1851. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms that avoided U.S. shores, while current pre-season conditions show no immediate threats. NOAA’s May 21 outlook and early June monitoring will provide updated model guidance, though inherent variability in steering patterns and ocean temperatures maintains realistic uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$135,286 KL.
$135,286 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$135,286 KL.
$135,286 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent seasonal forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with Colorado State University projecting just six hurricanes and two major hurricanes amid an emerging El Niño that elevates upper-level wind shear and suppresses rapid intensification. This aligns with the historical rarity of Category 5 landfalls—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—with only four such events striking the continental U.S. since 1851. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms that avoided U.S. shores, while current pre-season conditions show no immediate threats. NOAA’s May 21 outlook and early June monitoring will provide updated model guidance, though inherent variability in steering patterns and ocean temperatures maintains realistic uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$135,286Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent seasonal forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with Colorado State University projecting just six hurricanes and two major hurricanes amid an emerging El Niño that elevates upper-level wind shear and suppresses rapid intensification. This aligns with the historical rarity of Category 5 landfalls—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—with only four such events striking the continental U.S. since 1851. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms that avoided U.S. shores, while current pre-season conditions show no immediate threats. NOAA’s May 21 outlook and early June monitoring will provide updated model guidance, though inherent variability in steering patterns and ocean temperatures maintains realistic uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Khối lượng
$135,286Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seasonal forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with Colorado State University projecting just six hurricanes and two major hurricanes amid an emerging El Niño that elevates upper-level wind shear and suppresses rapid intensification. This aligns with the historical rarity of Category 5 landfalls—defined by sustained winds of 157 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—with only four such events striking the continental U.S. since 1851. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms that avoided U.S. shores, while current pre-season conditions show no immediate threats. NOAA’s May 21 outlook and early June monitoring will provide updated model guidance, though inherent variability in steering patterns and ocean temperatures maintains realistic uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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