**Messi’s August 31, 2026, retirement from Argentina’s national team is the decisive factor behind the 78.5% “No” implied probability.** The 39-year-old announced the decision weeks after Argentina’s extra-time loss to Spain in the 2026 World Cup final, citing that he had given everything to the Albiceleste and had “nothing left to give,” with his father’s recent passing reinforcing the timing. At that point Messi had already played his final international match. He would turn 41 during the 2028 Copa América, and while his Inter Miami contract runs through the end of that year, the retirement statement explicitly ends his national-team career. AFA president Claudio Tapia had previously stressed the choice was Messi’s alone, with no pressure to continue, but the formal announcement removed any remaining uncertainty. Messi’s recent form offered little counterweight: despite strong output (eight goals, four assists) at the 2026 World Cup, recurring muscular issues and the cumulative physical toll of 207 caps across 21 years made another major tournament cycle improbable even before retirement. With the player now out of the international picture, traders view participation in 2028 as effectively ruled out barring an extraordinary reversal that has not materialized.