Reza Pahlavi remains in exile nearly five decades after leaving Iran, with prediction markets assigning low single-digit probabilities to his entry by late 2026. The Islamic Republic maintains control amid ongoing regional tensions and limited domestic upheaval, creating high barriers to safe return for a prominent opposition figure. Pahlavi has publicly stated readiness to enter as soon as conditions allow—even before full regime change—while outlining transition plans and accepting calculated risks, yet no verified travel or coordination details have emerged. His 2026 activities, including U.S. speeches and a European tour focused on building international support for secular democratic change, have reinforced his external role without altering the security or political environment inside Iran. Any shift in regime stability, major protests, or diplomatic developments could influence trader assessments of entry feasibility.