Recent NOAA and WMO assessments confirm a rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +1.8°C to +2.8°C weekly and Relative Oceanic Niño Index values already near or above the +2.0°C very strong threshold. Model ensembles project a peak of +3.0°C or higher in October–December 2026, exceeding prior records such as 1997–98 and 2015–16 in most runs, supported by exceptional subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. This drives the 71.5% market-implied probability for a record event, reflecting trader alignment with the >90% odds of very strong conditions and 70–77% chance of historic strength. Peak timing and final three-month RONI values will determine resolution, with new monthly forecasts due soon.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
72% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Mar 31, 2027
72% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Recent NOAA and WMO assessments confirm a rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +1.8°C to +2.8°C weekly and Relative Oceanic Niño Index values already near or above the +2.0°C very strong threshold. Model ensembles project a peak of +3.0°C or higher in October–December 2026, exceeding prior records such as 1997–98 and 2015–16 in most runs, supported by exceptional subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. This drives the 71.5% market-implied probability for a record event, reflecting trader alignment with the >90% odds of very strong conditions and 70–77% chance of historic strength. Peak timing and final three-month RONI values will determine resolution, with new monthly forecasts due soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$286Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Recent NOAA and WMO assessments confirm a rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +1.8°C to +2.8°C weekly and Relative Oceanic Niño Index values already near or above the +2.0°C very strong threshold. Model ensembles project a peak of +3.0°C or higher in October–December 2026, exceeding prior records such as 1997–98 and 2015–16 in most runs, supported by exceptional subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. This drives the 71.5% market-implied probability for a record event, reflecting trader alignment with the >90% odds of very strong conditions and 70–77% chance of historic strength. Peak timing and final three-month RONI values will determine resolution, with new monthly forecasts due soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Khối lượng
$286Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA and WMO assessments confirm a rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies reaching +1.8°C to +2.8°C weekly and Relative Oceanic Niño Index values already near or above the +2.0°C very strong threshold. Model ensembles project a peak of +3.0°C or higher in October–December 2026, exceeding prior records such as 1997–98 and 2015–16 in most runs, supported by exceptional subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. This drives the 71.5% market-implied probability for a record event, reflecting trader alignment with the >90% odds of very strong conditions and 70–77% chance of historic strength. Peak timing and final three-month RONI values will determine resolution, with new monthly forecasts due soon.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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