The NBA’s pursuit of anti-tanking reforms has driven the 61.5 percent implied probability that draft lottery rules will change, centered on a proposed “3-2-1” system set for a Board of Governors vote on May 28. Recent league meetings with general managers and the competition committee produced broad internal support for expanding the lottery to 16 teams, flattening odds across the bottom of the standings, and introducing a relegation zone that reduces balls for the three worst records while capping how low any team can fall. These adjustments directly address persistent tanking concerns from the 2025-26 season, where multiple clubs faced scrutiny for resting players and prioritizing draft positioning over competitive balance. Traders view passage as likely given the framework’s majority backing and sunset clause through 2029, though minor tweaks remain possible before owners finalize the structure.