The Sudanese Armed Forces have maintained firm control of Khartoum since their March 2025 recapture of the capital, with government institutions formally returning by January 2026 and SAF forces securing key infrastructure including the international airport. This territorial consolidation has pushed Rapid Support Forces units westward into Darfur and contested sectors of Kordofan, leaving no credible RSF ground presence or offensive momentum near the capital as of mid-May 2026. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no capture by June 30 because the front lines have stabilized, RSF supply lines are stretched, and any reversal would require a major SAF collapse or rapid redeployment that has not materialized in the past year. Drone strikes and peripheral clashes continue without altering the capital's status, though a sudden SAF withdrawal from eastern corridors or accelerated RSF reinforcement from North Kordofan remain the narrowest paths to a shift before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
$21,756 KL.
$21,756 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$21,756 KL.
$21,756 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.The Sudanese Armed Forces have maintained firm control of Khartoum since their March 2025 recapture of the capital, with government institutions formally returning by January 2026 and SAF forces securing key infrastructure including the international airport. This territorial consolidation has pushed Rapid Support Forces units westward into Darfur and contested sectors of Kordofan, leaving no credible RSF ground presence or offensive momentum near the capital as of mid-May 2026. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no capture by June 30 because the front lines have stabilized, RSF supply lines are stretched, and any reversal would require a major SAF collapse or rapid redeployment that has not materialized in the past year. Drone strikes and peripheral clashes continue without altering the capital's status, though a sudden SAF withdrawal from eastern corridors or accelerated RSF reinforcement from North Kordofan remain the narrowest paths to a shift before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Thị trường mở: Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ET
Khối lượng
$21,756Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.The Sudanese Armed Forces have maintained firm control of Khartoum since their March 2025 recapture of the capital, with government institutions formally returning by January 2026 and SAF forces securing key infrastructure including the international airport. This territorial consolidation has pushed Rapid Support Forces units westward into Darfur and contested sectors of Kordofan, leaving no credible RSF ground presence or offensive momentum near the capital as of mid-May 2026. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no capture by June 30 because the front lines have stabilized, RSF supply lines are stretched, and any reversal would require a major SAF collapse or rapid redeployment that has not materialized in the past year. Drone strikes and peripheral clashes continue without altering the capital's status, though a sudden SAF withdrawal from eastern corridors or accelerated RSF reinforcement from North Kordofan remain the narrowest paths to a shift before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Khối lượng
$21,756Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Sudanese Armed Forces have maintained firm control of Khartoum since their March 2025 recapture of the capital, with government institutions formally returning by January 2026 and SAF forces securing key infrastructure including the international airport. This territorial consolidation has pushed Rapid Support Forces units westward into Darfur and contested sectors of Kordofan, leaving no credible RSF ground presence or offensive momentum near the capital as of mid-May 2026. Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no capture by June 30 because the front lines have stabilized, RSF supply lines are stretched, and any reversal would require a major SAF collapse or rapid redeployment that has not materialized in the past year. Drone strikes and peripheral clashes continue without altering the capital's status, though a sudden SAF withdrawal from eastern corridors or accelerated RSF reinforcement from North Kordofan remain the narrowest paths to a shift before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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