Recent equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have surged to record levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 values near +2.9 °C and Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +3 °C in places as of mid-September 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0 °C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter, alongside a 75 percent probability of a historic event surpassing prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, JMA, and IRI converge on further intensification through the peak window, driven by deep thermocline anomalies and sustained westerly wind bursts. While model spread and potential late-season adjustments introduce modest uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus support the elevated market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Mar 31, 2027
94% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have surged to record levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 values near +2.9 °C and Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +3 °C in places as of mid-September 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0 °C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter, alongside a 75 percent probability of a historic event surpassing prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, JMA, and IRI converge on further intensification through the peak window, driven by deep thermocline anomalies and sustained westerly wind bursts. While model spread and potential late-season adjustments introduce modest uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus support the elevated market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,246Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have surged to record levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 values near +2.9 °C and Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +3 °C in places as of mid-September 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0 °C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter, alongside a 75 percent probability of a historic event surpassing prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, JMA, and IRI converge on further intensification through the peak window, driven by deep thermocline anomalies and sustained westerly wind bursts. While model spread and potential late-season adjustments introduce modest uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus support the elevated market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Khối lượng
$9,246Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have surged to record levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 values near +2.9 °C and Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +3 °C in places as of mid-September 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0 °C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter, alongside a 75 percent probability of a historic event surpassing prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during October–December. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, JMA, and IRI converge on further intensification through the peak window, driven by deep thermocline anomalies and sustained westerly wind bursts. While model spread and potential late-season adjustments introduce modest uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus support the elevated market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp