**Tiger Woods’ extensive injury history and absence from competitive golf since the 2024 Open Championship underpin the 85.3% implied probability that he will not appear in a PGA Tour event in 2026.** The 50-year-old has undergone seven back procedures, including a recent disc replacement, plus surgery for a torn Achilles tendon and lingering effects from his 2021 leg injuries, which have repeatedly prevented him from walking courses for multiple rounds. A March 2026 car accident led to a reckless-driving plea and license suspension, further delaying any return. While Woods recently demonstrated a functional swing at a September 2026 driving-range clinic, he has issued no commitments, and analysts note that full tournament demands remain a significant barrier. Trader consensus reflects these medical and scheduling realities rather than any confirmed plans for events like the Hero World Challenge.