Bipartisan Senate opposition, including a unanimous July 2026 resolution against clemency, combined with exhausted appeals after a federal judge rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition in August, has reinforced trader expectations against a Trump pardon by end of 2026. President Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter and has received no formal request, while declining to rule it out and noting he would consult the Justice Department. Maxwell’s counsel has signaled interest in clemency tied to testimony but acknowledged the ongoing Epstein files controversy creates substantial political barriers. These factors, alongside survivor advocacy and reputational risks for the administration, underpin the current 95% implied probability that no pardon will occur.