Tiger Woods' March 2026 DUI arrest in Florida created the only plausible hook for clemency speculation, yet the charge remains a state offense beyond presidential reach. Traders price "No" near 99 percent because federal pardon authority covers only federal crimes, and no credible reports indicate Woods faces any federal exposure. The 15-time major winner has maintained a low public profile while reportedly seeking treatment, and President Trump's public remarks have stayed limited to personal support without signaling any clemency push. Even strong personal ties between the two men have not altered the jurisdictional barrier. The slim chance of a reversal would require an unforeseen federal indictment or a dramatic expansion of executive power before the June 30 cutoff.