Recent Federal Reserve tightening has emerged as the dominant driver of USD/KRW positioning, with the central bank’s September 25 basis point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range and signals of further increases widening the U.S.-Korea policy gap to a full percentage point and lifting Treasury yields. This has reversed the won’s earlier advance into the low 1,330s, pushing the pair back near 1,385 amid foreign equity outflows from Korean technology shares and elevated Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Offsetting support for the won stems from Korea’s record semiconductor export surge—up 259% year-over-year in early September—and a sizable current-account surplus that continues to attract long-term capital. The Bank of Korea, already at 3.00% after consecutive hikes, faces pressure for an additional move by year-end, while analysts project the pair to trade within a 1,300–1,400 range through mid-2027, subject to U.S. policy signals and risk sentiment.