France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, mirroring its narrow lead atop the latest FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Rankings ahead of Spain at 16.4%, following dominant UEFA qualifying campaigns where both topped tough groups with superior goal difference and clean sheets. Recent injury setbacks have tightened the race further, notably Brazil's Rodrygo sidelined by a torn ACL alongside Estêvão's hamstring issue, dropping their odds to 9.2% despite a solid CONMEBOL finish, while Argentina faces questions over Lionel Messi's fitness at age 39. England (11.5%) benefits from favorable Group L draw against Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, but the bunched leaderboard underscores elite parity in knockout potential across Europe and South America, balanced paths post-April group draw, and the expanded 48-team format amplifying group stage volatility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於法國 18.1%
西班牙 16.4%
英格蘭 11.5%
巴西 9.2%
$968,509,671 交易量
$968,509,671 交易量

法國
18%

西班牙
16%

英格蘭
11%

巴西
9%

阿根廷
9%

葡萄牙
8%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
2%

日本
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

瑞士
1%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

土耳其
1%

奧地利
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
<1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

捷克
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

澳洲
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
法國 18.1%
西班牙 16.4%
英格蘭 11.5%
巴西 9.2%
$968,509,671 交易量
$968,509,671 交易量

法國
18%

西班牙
16%

英格蘭
11%

巴西
9%

阿根廷
9%

葡萄牙
8%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
2%

日本
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

瑞士
1%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

土耳其
1%

奧地利
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
<1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

捷克
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

澳洲
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, mirroring its narrow lead atop the latest FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Rankings ahead of Spain at 16.4%, following dominant UEFA qualifying campaigns where both topped tough groups with superior goal difference and clean sheets. Recent injury setbacks have tightened the race further, notably Brazil's Rodrygo sidelined by a torn ACL alongside Estêvão's hamstring issue, dropping their odds to 9.2% despite a solid CONMEBOL finish, while Argentina faces questions over Lionel Messi's fitness at age 39. England (11.5%) benefits from favorable Group L draw against Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, but the bunched leaderboard underscores elite parity in knockout potential across Europe and South America, balanced paths post-April group draw, and the expanded 48-team format amplifying group stage volatility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions