France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.6% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Spain, as traders weigh recent form and squad depth across the expanded 48-team field. Spain’s long unbeaten streak in 90-minute matches and strong European Championship pedigree keep it tightly bunched at 16.8%, while England, Brazil, and Argentina sit just behind on the strength of established attacking talent and qualification results. Recent international friendlies have highlighted France’s attacking options and Spain’s possession control, yet injury concerns for key players like Lamine Yamal and ongoing squad finalization across contenders sustain the competitive balance. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities underscores how evenly matched the leading nations remain with one month until kickoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於法國 18.6%
西班牙 16.8%
英格蘭 11.3%
巴西 9.2%
$1,009,070,132 交易量
$1,009,070,132 交易量
法國
19%
西班牙
17%
英格蘭
11%
巴西
9%
阿根廷
9%
葡萄牙
8%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
2%
日本
2%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
烏拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
厄瓜多
1%
塞內加爾
1%
土耳其
1%
奧地利
1%
瑞典
1%
加拿大
<1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
埃及
<1%
加納
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳洲
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
巴拿馬
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
剛果民主共和國
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
法國 18.6%
西班牙 16.8%
英格蘭 11.3%
巴西 9.2%
$1,009,070,132 交易量
$1,009,070,132 交易量
法國
19%
西班牙
17%
英格蘭
11%
巴西
9%
阿根廷
9%
葡萄牙
8%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
2%
日本
2%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
烏拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
厄瓜多
1%
塞內加爾
1%
土耳其
1%
奧地利
1%
瑞典
1%
加拿大
<1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
埃及
<1%
加納
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳洲
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
巴拿馬
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
剛果民主共和國
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.6% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Spain, as traders weigh recent form and squad depth across the expanded 48-team field. Spain’s long unbeaten streak in 90-minute matches and strong European Championship pedigree keep it tightly bunched at 16.8%, while England, Brazil, and Argentina sit just behind on the strength of established attacking talent and qualification results. Recent international friendlies have highlighted France’s attacking options and Spain’s possession control, yet injury concerns for key players like Lamine Yamal and ongoing squad finalization across contenders sustain the competitive balance. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities underscores how evenly matched the leading nations remain with one month until kickoff.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions