Sindarov enters the 2026 World Chess Championship as the clear favorite due to his 72-point classical rating edge (2782 vs. 2710) and dominant Candidates Tournament victory, where he posted a record 10/14 score to secure the challenger spot. Gukesh’s recent form slump, including multiple subpar results and a 43-point rating drop since his 2024 title win, has drawn criticism from Carlsen and Kasparov, eroding trader confidence in the defending champion’s ability to retain the crown in the upcoming Geneva match. Sindarov’s strong 2026 results across classical events and favorable head-to-head record further reinforce the 76% implied probability, though Gukesh’s experience in high-stakes matches leaves room for a competitive defense.