Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a major counteroffensive in early October 2026, claiming control of Dhubab district, its airfield, and coastal positions overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while advancing toward Mokha, with Saudi coalition airstrikes targeting Houthi assets. The Iran-backed Houthis rejected these reports as propaganda and asserted continued control of key areas, including the strait approaches, following their September gains that included capture of Mokha and Perim Island. Shipping transits persist at reduced volumes amid the fighting, with no formal closure declared, though risks from missile and drone threats remain elevated. These battlefield developments and disputed territorial claims directly shape trader assessments of effective closure risks in the critical Red Sea chokepoint.