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運動·足球

2026年金球獎得主

icon for 2026年金球獎得主
運動·足球

2026年金球獎得主

哈里·凱恩 58.5%

拉明·亞馬爾 15.7%

羅德里 9%

基利安·姆巴佩 8.6%

Polymarket

$29,170,484 交易量

哈里·凱恩 58.5%

拉明·亞馬爾 15.7%

羅德里 9%

基利安·姆巴佩 8.6%

Polymarket

$29,170,484 交易量

哈里·凱恩

$3,434,200 交易量

58%

拉明·亞馬爾

$1,849,462 交易量

16%

羅德里

$1,109,726 交易量

9%

基利安·姆巴佩

$1,601,174 交易量

9%

克維查·克瓦拉茨赫利亞

$1,121,704 交易量

4%

萊納爾·梅西

$1,936,349 交易量

2%

奧斯曼·登貝萊

$1,872,052 交易量

2%

法比安·魯伊斯

$882,599 交易量

1%

厄林·哈蘭德

$1,288,383 交易量

<1%

邁克爾·奧利塞

$1,092,986 交易量

<1%

裘德·貝林漢

$1,034,777 交易量

<1%

迪克蘭·賴斯

$816,465 交易量

<1%

維蒂尼亞

$714,672 交易量

<1%

Pau Cubarsi

$816,989 交易量

<1%

穆罕默德·薩拉赫

$1,057,708 交易量

<1%

維尼修斯·儒尼奧爾

$1,067,431 交易量

<1%

佩德里

$884,675 交易量

<1%

科爾·帕爾默

$679,621 交易量

<1%

朱利安·阿爾瓦雷斯

$732,885 交易量

<1%

拉芬尼亞

$695,107 交易量

<1%

布魯諾·費爾南德斯

$709,222 交易量

<1%

勞塔羅·馬丁內斯

$487,143 交易量

<1%

克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多

$457,373 交易量

<1%

恩佐·費爾南德斯

$67,071 交易量

<1%

費德里科·巴爾韋德

$447,652 交易量

<1%

德西雷·杜埃

$733,383 交易量

<1%

阿什拉夫·哈基米

$740,043 交易量

<1%

路易斯·迪亞斯

$439,309 交易量

<1%

多米尼克·索博斯洛伊

$168,279 交易量

<1%

羅德里戈

$88,121 交易量

<1%

布卡約·薩卡

$147,747 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 59.5% implied probability after a record 2025-26 club campaign at Bayern Munich that produced 73 goals and 8 assists across 65 matches, plus Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Supercup titles. His six World Cup goals for England further reinforced trader consensus on his individual output during the voting window spanning August 2025 to July 2026. Lamine Yamal sits at 15.7% on the back of consistent Barcelona contributions and Spain's strong tournament showing, while Rodri (9.5%) and Kylian Mbappé (8.6%) reflect sustained midfield control and attacking volume respectively. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia trails at 4.2% amid PSG form. Post-World Cup recalibration has stabilized these positions, with Kane's scoring volume and trophy haul maintaining separation in skin-in-the-game pricing ahead of the October ceremony.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
交易量
$29,170,484
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 59.5% implied probability after a record 2025-26 club campaign at Bayern Munich that produced 73 goals and 8 assists across 65 matches, plus Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Supercup titles. His six World Cup goals for England further reinforced trader consensus on his individual output during the voting window spanning August 2025 to July 2026. Lamine Yamal sits at 15.7% on the back of consistent Barcelona contributions and Spain's strong tournament showing, while Rodri (9.5%) and Kylian Mbappé (8.6%) reflect sustained midfield control and attacking volume respectively. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia trails at 4.2% amid PSG form. Post-World Cup recalibration has stabilized these positions, with Kane's scoring volume and trophy haul maintaining separation in skin-in-the-game pricing ahead of the October ceremony.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
交易量
$29,170,484
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

相關

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Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

98%
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Will Erling Haaland be named to the 2026 PFA Premier League Team of the Year?

93%

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年金球獎得主" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "哈里·凱恩" at 58%, followed by "拉明·亞馬爾" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年金球獎得主" has generated $29.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年金球獎得主," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年金球獎得主" is "哈里·凱恩" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "拉明·亞馬爾" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年金球獎得主" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.