The Bank of England's decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in its April 2026 meeting, coupled with upside risks from Middle East energy price shocks, underpins the 69.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike this year. Elevated CPI at 3.3% and BoE scenario analysis highlighting potential second-round inflation effects from sustained oil and gas prices above $120 have shifted trader consensus toward tightening, with futures markets now embedding roughly 60 basis points of increases by year-end. While the central projection assumes a hold through most of 2026 amid softening growth and labor market slack, the MPC's state-contingent stance and June 18 meeting will hinge on incoming inflation prints and geopolitical developments.