The tight race for the Palme d’Or reflects a stacked competition slate of 22 films from established auteurs, with Na Hong-jin’s Hope holding a narrow edge in trader sentiment thanks to the director’s proven track record in genre-blending thrillers and early positive word-of-mouth from its Cannes premiere. Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden follow closely, buoyed by strong critical consensus and their directors’ recent festival successes, while Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Minotaur draw support from their auteurs’ historical Palme pedigree. With the jury led by Park Chan-wook and including Demi Moore set to deliberate through the final week, key differentiating factors include critical reception, thematic resonance with the festival’s emphasis on international cinema, and any last-minute buzz from remaining screenings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 27%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 27%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 15%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 14%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
27%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
27%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
15%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
18%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
11%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
10%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
17%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
5%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
5%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
5%
詹姆斯·格雷《紙老虎》
4%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
4%
MOULIN by László NEMES
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
4%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
4%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
3%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
2%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 27%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 27%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 15%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 14%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
27%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
27%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
15%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
18%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
11%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
10%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
17%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
5%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
5%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
5%
詹姆斯·格雷《紙老虎》
4%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
4%
MOULIN by László NEMES
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
4%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
4%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
3%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
2%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for the Palme d’Or reflects a stacked competition slate of 22 films from established auteurs, with Na Hong-jin’s Hope holding a narrow edge in trader sentiment thanks to the director’s proven track record in genre-blending thrillers and early positive word-of-mouth from its Cannes premiere. Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden follow closely, buoyed by strong critical consensus and their directors’ recent festival successes, while Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Minotaur draw support from their auteurs’ historical Palme pedigree. With the jury led by Park Chan-wook and including Demi Moore set to deliberate through the final week, key differentiating factors include critical reception, thematic resonance with the festival’s emphasis on international cinema, and any last-minute buzz from remaining screenings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions