Ella Langley’s record-shattering “Choosin’ Texas” drives the overwhelming trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for CMA Single of the Year, reflecting its unprecedented 21-plus weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 and status as the year’s biggest cross-genre hit. Nominations announced in September highlighted Langley’s nine total nods, including dual Single of the Year entries for “Choosin’ Texas” and “Be Her,” with the former also earning Song and Music Video recognition. The November 18 ceremony approaches with recent performer announcements underscoring Langley’s momentum, while the other four nominees—Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” Lainey Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo,” and Cody Johnson’s “The Fall”—trail significantly amid the frontrunner’s commercial dominance and industry narrative.