Traders assign overwhelming probability against EU dissolution before 2027 because no member state has initiated formal withdrawal under Article 50, and treaty repeal or coordinated exits by a majority of states remain structurally improbable within the narrow remaining timeframe. Recent EU summits continue to address budgets, migration, trade disputes, and security coordination without signs of institutional collapse, while member governments focus on domestic reforms and competitiveness rather than exit negotiations. Economic interdependence, shared legal frameworks, and the absence of credible multi-state exit campaigns reinforce the current pricing. Plausible but low-probability shifts could stem from simultaneous sovereign debt crises triggering multiple withdrawals or an unprecedented unanimous treaty decision, though neither shows momentum in current political calendars.