France's unmatched squad depth, recent international form, and star attackers like Kylian Mbappé give it the strongest platform to top Group I, aligning with the 69.5% implied probability in trader consensus. Norway sits second at 21.5% thanks to Erling Haaland's scoring threat and a balanced attack that has delivered consistent results in recent qualifiers. Senegal holds an 8.5% chance on the back of its organized defense and CAF pedigree, while Iraq trails at 0.9% as the clear underdog facing a steep challenge in its first World Cup appearance since 1986. With the opening fixtures set for mid-June and no major injuries reported among the top sides, recent squad announcements and pre-tournament preparation have reinforced the current market positioning ahead of the group stage opener.