Recent military rhetoric from Indian officials, including Western Command statements warning that Pakistan’s nuclear posture will not deter stronger responses than Operation Sindoor if provoked, has shaped trader views on the likelihood of new strikes. The May 2025 ceasefire has held, yet a September 2026 naval collision in the Arabian Sea and an early October border incident prompted diplomatic summons on both sides. India maintains suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty while Pakistan advances Chinese-sourced capabilities such as potential J-20 fighters and air-defense systems. An upcoming SCO summit in New Delhi later this month offers limited diplomatic contact, though New Delhi’s policy conditions talks on ending cross-border terrorism. These factors sustain focus on escalation risks without altering the low near-term probability of direct military action.