Leopold Aschenbrenner faces an 87% implied probability of avoiding charges in 2026, reflecting the absence of any active investigations, complaints, or regulatory actions tied to his past OpenAI exit or current hedge fund activities. Traders price in this outcome because his 2024 dismissal over a disputed internal document never escalated into formal legal proceedings, and recent fund developments—such as steep July 2026 losses from leveraged AI bets and the subsequent unwind of public holdings—remain purely financial matters with no criminal implications. The consensus draws from the lack of credible signals that new evidence or disputes could surface before year-end, though unexpected whistleblower claims or enforcement shifts could still alter probabilities. This skin-in-the-game assessment aligns with base rates for similar high-profile figures where no probes are underway.