Will Venable of the Chicago White Sox leads the AL Manager of the Year market at 57.3% implied probability, reflecting traders' emphasis on his second-year turnaround of a roster that lost 102 games in 2025. The White Sox sit atop the AL Central at 77-75 despite modest preseason expectations, creating a compelling narrative of exceeded benchmarks. Kevin Cash of the Tampa Bay Rays follows at 40.5%, buoyed by the AL's best record at 91-59 and a clinched playoff berth, though his strong performance aligns more closely with established Rays standards. Lower-probability options such as Stephen Vogt and Chad Tracy trail significantly, as market consensus prioritizes the White Sox' division lead and roster improvement over other contenders' results.