Recent Abu Dhabi talks yielded a prisoner exchange but produced no progress on territorial control or ceasefires, with Russia maintaining demands for recognition of annexations and Ukrainian neutrality while Kyiv rejects concessions amid ongoing frontline advances. Persistent distrust, Russia's continued strikes on energy infrastructure, and both sides' refusal to compromise on core security guarantees sustain trader consensus against near-term resolution. The war's five-year grind, coupled with Russia's insistence on maximalist outcomes, reinforces expectations of prolonged stalemate. Shifts could arise from decisive battlefield reversals, European involvement altering leverage, or sudden economic strains prompting flexibility from Moscow.