The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapon restrictions in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has anchored trader sentiment near even odds for invalidation. Those cases, set for fall arguments in the October 2026 term, squarely test whether the Second Amendment protects semiautomatic rifles such as the AR-15 that are in widespread civilian use for lawful purposes. A 6-3 majority has repeatedly broadened individual gun rights since Heller and Bruen, yet the Court previously declined review of similar bans and lower courts have upheld them by distinguishing military-style features from common self-defense arms. Resolution timing, the precise question presented, and any signals at oral argument remain key variables that could still shift the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.