**The Southern Poverty Law Center faces an 11-count federal indictment in the Middle District of Alabama on wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and money-laundering conspiracy charges tied to its former informant payments to individuals linked to extremist groups.** The organization entered a not-guilty plea, and a judge denied its August 2026 motion to dismiss on vindictive-prosecution grounds. A tentative October 5 trial date has been set, yet the volume of discovery and pre-trial motions in this complex case make completion before December 31, 2026, unlikely. Market pricing for “No” at 91.8% reflects these calendar constraints: the contract resolves to “Yes” only on a court judgment or guilty plea by year-end, while a plea without admission of guilt, dismissal, or delayed verdict defaults to “No.” Recent docket activity shows ongoing procedural steps with no indication of an expedited resolution.