Sweden leads Group B4 of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League with 10 points from four matches and a plus-four goal difference, two points clear of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who sit on eight points with an identical unbeaten record. Sweden's results against Poland and Romania, combined with their upcoming home fixture against Bosnia, position them strongly for automatic promotion to League A, reflected in the 78% implied probability. Bosnia's competitive showings, including a draw with Sweden, support their 21.8% standing, while Poland and Romania trail significantly with four and zero points. The remaining matchdays, including the November 14 clash in Solna and the final round on November 17, continue to shape the group outcome and trader consensus.