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icon for 喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

icon for 喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$14,250 交易量

是

13% 機率
Polymarket

$14,250 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.Persistent delays and stalled progress on The Winds of Winter have solidified trader consensus around an 87.5% implied probability that George R.R. Martin will not announce a 2026 release date. As of mid-May, Martin has remained silent on his blog since February, offering no meaningful updates on manuscript completion, while his January Hollywood Reporter comments highlighted ongoing distractions from other projects and inconsistent motivation to prioritize the novel. Bantam Books further dampened speculation in April by publicly dismissing viral rumors of a leaked manuscript or fall 2026 rollout as false. This pattern aligns with the author’s historical timeline struggles, leaving little momentum for a surprise announcement this year despite occasional industry speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$14,250
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.Persistent delays and stalled progress on The Winds of Winter have solidified trader consensus around an 87.5% implied probability that George R.R. Martin will not announce a 2026 release date. As of mid-May, Martin has remained silent on his blog since February, offering no meaningful updates on manuscript completion, while his January Hollywood Reporter comments highlighted ongoing distractions from other projects and inconsistent motivation to prioritize the novel. Bantam Books further dampened speculation in April by publicly dismissing viral rumors of a leaked manuscript or fall 2026 rollout as false. This pattern aligns with the author’s historical timeline struggles, leaving little momentum for a surprise announcement this year despite occasional industry speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$14,250
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "喬治·R·R·馬丁會在2026年宣布《凜冬的寒風》嗎？" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" has generated $14.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" is "喬治·R·R·馬丁會在2026年宣布《凜冬的寒風》嗎？" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.