Russia’s sustained military commitment to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, including incremental territorial gains amid high casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations against a new conventional invasion in 2026. With forces focused on sustaining operations in Donetsk and other fronts while incrementally expanding authorized troop strength, Moscow shows no verified large-scale deployments, official statements, or logistical preparations signaling intent to open additional fronts before year-end. European and NATO assessments continue to highlight hybrid risks such as sabotage or airspace probes rather than imminent cross-border offensives, and the absence of concrete triggers within the resolution window supports the market’s strong consensus on the “No” outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$400,851 交易量
$400,851 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 機率
$400,851 交易量
$400,851 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s sustained military commitment to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, including incremental territorial gains amid high casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations against a new conventional invasion in 2026. With forces focused on sustaining operations in Donetsk and other fronts while incrementally expanding authorized troop strength, Moscow shows no verified large-scale deployments, official statements, or logistical preparations signaling intent to open additional fronts before year-end. European and NATO assessments continue to highlight hybrid risks such as sabotage or airspace probes rather than imminent cross-border offensives, and the absence of concrete triggers within the resolution window supports the market’s strong consensus on the “No” outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$400,851結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s sustained military commitment to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, including incremental territorial gains amid high casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations against a new conventional invasion in 2026. With forces focused on sustaining operations in Donetsk and other fronts while incrementally expanding authorized troop strength, Moscow shows no verified large-scale deployments, official statements, or logistical preparations signaling intent to open additional fronts before year-end. European and NATO assessments continue to highlight hybrid risks such as sabotage or airspace probes rather than imminent cross-border offensives, and the absence of concrete triggers within the resolution window supports the market’s strong consensus on the “No” outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$400,851結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s sustained military commitment to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, including incremental territorial gains amid high casualties and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations against a new conventional invasion in 2026. With forces focused on sustaining operations in Donetsk and other fronts while incrementally expanding authorized troop strength, Moscow shows no verified large-scale deployments, official statements, or logistical preparations signaling intent to open additional fronts before year-end. European and NATO assessments continue to highlight hybrid risks such as sabotage or airspace probes rather than imminent cross-border offensives, and the absence of concrete triggers within the resolution window supports the market’s strong consensus on the “No” outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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