Russia's ongoing attritional campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow advances in Donbas and high casualties through mid-2026, has left its forces stretched without reserves or capacity for new large-scale operations against additional targets. Kremlin statements continue to prioritize maximalist goals in the existing conflict over opening fresh fronts, while NATO deterrence, sanctions, and Ukrainian deep strikes further constrain escalation options. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no new invasion reflects this resource strain and focus on the current theater. A shift could still occur via miscalculation amid hybrid activities or if battlefield dynamics in Ukraine prompt desperate expansion, though recent patterns show no such preparations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$400,783 交易量
$400,783 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$400,783 交易量
$400,783 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing attritional campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow advances in Donbas and high casualties through mid-2026, has left its forces stretched without reserves or capacity for new large-scale operations against additional targets. Kremlin statements continue to prioritize maximalist goals in the existing conflict over opening fresh fronts, while NATO deterrence, sanctions, and Ukrainian deep strikes further constrain escalation options. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no new invasion reflects this resource strain and focus on the current theater. A shift could still occur via miscalculation amid hybrid activities or if battlefield dynamics in Ukraine prompt desperate expansion, though recent patterns show no such preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$400,783結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing attritional campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow advances in Donbas and high casualties through mid-2026, has left its forces stretched without reserves or capacity for new large-scale operations against additional targets. Kremlin statements continue to prioritize maximalist goals in the existing conflict over opening fresh fronts, while NATO deterrence, sanctions, and Ukrainian deep strikes further constrain escalation options. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no new invasion reflects this resource strain and focus on the current theater. A shift could still occur via miscalculation amid hybrid activities or if battlefield dynamics in Ukraine prompt desperate expansion, though recent patterns show no such preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$400,783結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing attritional campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow advances in Donbas and high casualties through mid-2026, has left its forces stretched without reserves or capacity for new large-scale operations against additional targets. Kremlin statements continue to prioritize maximalist goals in the existing conflict over opening fresh fronts, while NATO deterrence, sanctions, and Ukrainian deep strikes further constrain escalation options. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no new invasion reflects this resource strain and focus on the current theater. A shift could still occur via miscalculation amid hybrid activities or if battlefield dynamics in Ukraine prompt desperate expansion, though recent patterns show no such preparations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions