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icon for 俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?

俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?

icon for 俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?

俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?

5% 機率
Polymarket

$400,783 交易量

5% 機率
Polymarket

$400,783 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing attritional campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow advances in Donbas and high casualties through mid-2026, has left its forces stretched without reserves or capacity for new large-scale operations against additional targets. Kremlin statements continue to prioritize maximalist goals in the existing conflict over opening fresh fronts, while NATO deterrence, sanctions, and Ukrainian deep strikes further constrain escalation options. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no new invasion reflects this resource strain and focus on the current theater. A shift could still occur via miscalculation amid hybrid activities or if battlefield dynamics in Ukraine prompt desperate expansion, though recent patterns show no such preparations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$400,783
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing attritional campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow advances in Donbas and high casualties through mid-2026, has left its forces stretched without reserves or capacity for new large-scale operations against additional targets. Kremlin statements continue to prioritize maximalist goals in the existing conflict over opening fresh fronts, while NATO deterrence, sanctions, and Ukrainian deep strikes further constrain escalation options. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no new invasion reflects this resource strain and focus on the current theater. A shift could still occur via miscalculation amid hybrid activities or if battlefield dynamics in Ukraine prompt desperate expansion, though recent patterns show no such preparations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$400,783
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?" has generated $400.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?" is "俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "俄羅斯會在2026年入侵另一個國家嗎?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.