Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year with forces occupying roughly 20 percent of the country and facing high casualties plus recruitment shortfalls, anchors trader views that Moscow lacks the capacity or incentive for a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Recent mutual long-range strikes, incremental Russian advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian drone operations inside Russia underscore the conflict's grinding intensity without signs of diversion to additional fronts. Analysts note preparations for possible further mobilization after September Duma elections remain tied to sustaining the Ukrainian theater rather than expansion, while hybrid measures against NATO receive attention but fall short of triggering a fresh interstate invasion. These dynamics support the market's strong consensus against a new incursion before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$404,747 交易量
$404,747 交易量
2026-12-30
是
6% 機率
$404,747 交易量
$404,747 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year with forces occupying roughly 20 percent of the country and facing high casualties plus recruitment shortfalls, anchors trader views that Moscow lacks the capacity or incentive for a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Recent mutual long-range strikes, incremental Russian advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian drone operations inside Russia underscore the conflict's grinding intensity without signs of diversion to additional fronts. Analysts note preparations for possible further mobilization after September Duma elections remain tied to sustaining the Ukrainian theater rather than expansion, while hybrid measures against NATO receive attention but fall short of triggering a fresh interstate invasion. These dynamics support the market's strong consensus against a new incursion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$404,747結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year with forces occupying roughly 20 percent of the country and facing high casualties plus recruitment shortfalls, anchors trader views that Moscow lacks the capacity or incentive for a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Recent mutual long-range strikes, incremental Russian advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian drone operations inside Russia underscore the conflict's grinding intensity without signs of diversion to additional fronts. Analysts note preparations for possible further mobilization after September Duma elections remain tied to sustaining the Ukrainian theater rather than expansion, while hybrid measures against NATO receive attention but fall short of triggering a fresh interstate invasion. These dynamics support the market's strong consensus against a new incursion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$404,747結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year with forces occupying roughly 20 percent of the country and facing high casualties plus recruitment shortfalls, anchors trader views that Moscow lacks the capacity or incentive for a new conventional invasion elsewhere in 2026. Recent mutual long-range strikes, incremental Russian advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian drone operations inside Russia underscore the conflict's grinding intensity without signs of diversion to additional fronts. Analysts note preparations for possible further mobilization after September Duma elections remain tied to sustaining the Ukrainian theater rather than expansion, while hybrid measures against NATO receive attention but fall short of triggering a fresh interstate invasion. These dynamics support the market's strong consensus against a new incursion before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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