**Trump has repeatedly signaled openness to a direct conversation with Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei only if a broader U.S.-Iran peace or nuclear deal materializes, most recently in early June 2026 when he stated he would be “honored” to meet contingent on ending the months-long conflict that began after Ali Khamenei’s death.** Negotiations have produced a fragile memorandum of understanding, yet Iran has accused the U.S. of repeated breaches, with Mojtaba Khamenei publicly dismissing Trump’s commitments as “worthless” in a July statement and warning of consequences for continued pressure. Iranian leadership has since elevated hard-line security figures, reinforcing a confrontational posture. No direct leader-level contact has occurred; talks remain at the negotiator level, and Iranian advisers have dismissed an imminent summit. Trader probabilities therefore hinge on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome these entrenched barriers before the market’s resolution date, with any verified breach or breakthrough in the coming weeks likely to shift implied odds sharply.